I wouldn’t take this prediction to the bank if I were a betting man. But, like co-blogger David Bernstein, I give Obama a slight edge, perhaps a 60-65 percent chance of victory. In the contest between national polls favoring Romney and battleground state polls favoring Obama, I give slightly greater credence to the latter. My […]
Author Archive | Ilya Somin
Protectionism and Beneficial Political Ignorance
As longtime VC readers know, one of my pet peeves is denouncing the harmful effects of widespread political ignorance and irrationality. As a general rule, the things voters don’t know often hurt them. On rare occasions, however, political ignorance can actually be beneficial. The issue of free trade and protectionism is one such example. In […]
Adventures in Microtargeting
In this much-discussed recent article, Sasha Issenberg argues that Democrats are much better than Republicans at “microtargeting”: the art and science of tailoring messages to the proclivities of individual voters and contacting them directly by phone, mail, or sending a volunteer. Issenberg’s account is interesting and entertaining. And it’s certainly possible that the Democrats are […]
Free Market Alternatives to the ACA
Back in December, I criticized the false dichotomy set up by those who claim that the only available alternative to the Obama health care plan is some form of socialized medicine. In this recent essay, University of Chicago economist John Cochrane gives an excellent summary of free market alternatives to the ACA that can cut […]
Throwing Civil Liberties to the Dogs?
Radley Balko has an interesting column noting the troubling implications of some of the arguments being made in the drug-sniffing dog cases currently before the Supreme Court. He points out that these dogs’ drug alerts are often unreliable because, in many cases, dogs seek to please their handlers rather than search out the truth. Thus, […]
Overconfident Pundits Predicting Victory for Their Side
Given the extreme closeness of both the national and battleground state polls, one would think that serious political commentators would avoid making bold predictions about the outcome of the presidential race. After all, an overconfident pundit who turns out to be wrong will have egg on their face in just a few days. This is […]
My Forthcoming Article on the Individual Mandate and the Meaning of “Proper” in the Necessary and Proper Clause
By Ilya Somin on October 29, 2012 1:40 pm in Federalism, Health Care, Individual Mandate, Necessary and Proper
My forthcoming book chapter, “The Individual Mandate and the Proper Meaning of ‘Proper,’” is now available on SSRN. It is forthcoming in The Health Care Cases, edited by Gillian Metzger, Trevor Morrison, and Nathaniel Persily, eds. (Oxford University Press). The book is a collection of essays on NFIB v. Sebelius, the case where the Court […]
Marijuana Legalization on this Year’s Ballot
Six states have marijuana legalization referendum questions on the ballot in this year’s election. Philip Smith has a good summary of them on the Stop the Drug War website [HT: Tom Angell]. Colorado, Oregon, and Washington will vote on initiatives to legalize marijuana generally, though all three would impose fairly extensive regulation on the new […]
Will Superman Become a Super-blogger?
CNN reports that Superman has quit his long-time job working for the mainstream media, and may well take up blogging: Add Superman to the list of reporters leaving the newspaper business behind. In the comic book series’ latest issue, which went on sale Wednesday, an outraged Clark Kent quits his job at The Daily Planet […]
Are We More Likely to Get an Immigration Reform Bill if Obama Wins the Election?
In my post comparing Romney and Obama on libertarian grounds, I noted that libertarians might have good reason to support Obama if it is likely that a second term for him would result in substantial immigration reform, by which I mean letting more immigrants in the country and/or letting more of the ones already here […]
Libertarians and the Presidential Election
Reason has an interesting symposium on the presidential election in which various libertarian writers and political commentators give their presidential picks. In sharp contrast with Reason’s symposium during the 2008 election, there is almost no support for Obama. While many libertarians endorsed Obama four years ago, very few are willing to do so today. I […]
Upcoming Debate on Citizens United at Amherst College
By Ilya Somin on October 23, 2012 2:35 pm in Freedom of Speech, Restrictions on Campaign Contrbs. and Expenses
This Friday at 7:30 PM, I will be debating the Citizens United decision and campaign finance issues at my alma mater, Amherst College. The other participants in the debate will be Prof. Larry Lessig (Harvard Law School), John Samples (Cato Institute), and John Medaille (University of Dallas). I answered some common criticisms of Citizens United […]
Upcoming Speech on Virginia Eminent Domain Reform – With Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli
By Ilya Somin on October 23, 2012 10:45 am in Blight, Eminent Domain, Kelo, Post-Kelo Reform, Property Rights
This Thursday at 6:30 PM, I will be speaking on property rights and eminent domain reform in Virginia at the Old Dominion Boat Club in Alexandria. I will be joined by Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, or perhaps it is more correct to say that I will be joining the AG. The event is open […]
A Dubious Attack On Virginia Eminent Domain Reform Referendum Question 1
By Ilya Somin on October 20, 2012 12:15 pm in Eminent Domain, Kelo, Post-Kelo Reform, Property Rights
In Friday’s Washington Post, state legislators Scott Surovell and Linda Puller published an op ed attacking Question 1, the eminent domain reform referendum question that Virginians will vote on in November. Unfortunately, their arguments are off-base, and some are seriously misleading. Question 1 would amend Virginia’s Constitution to forbid economic development takings of the kind […]
Does DOMA Discriminate on the Basis of Sexual Orientation, Gender, or Both?
Today’s Second Circuit decision striking down a part of the Defense of Marriage Act holds that laws discriminating on the basis of sexual orientation are subject to heightened “intermediate” scrutiny. But it is not clear that DOMA actually discriminates on the basis of sexual orientation, as opposed to gender. As I explained in the context […]