Only reporting results which represent a change. U.S. Senate. Gains: Indiana (Donnelly replaces Lugar). NM (Heinrich replaces Bingaman). ND (Heitkamp replaces Conrad). Senate losses: Mass., Warren defeats Brown (-.5 with NRA C-rated Senator replaced by an F). Virginia, Kaine replaces Webb. Senate net: +1.5. Ted Cruz’s win in Texas won’t change Senate voting patterns, but […]
Archive | Elections
Implications of Obama’s Victory
All of the major networks have called the election for Obama, and it’s pretty obvious that he’s going to win, even though the Romney campaign has not yet officially conceded. It’s an impressive political achievement for the president and his supporters, especially if (as now seems likely), he does better in the popular vote than […]
Second Amendment election results
As the results come in tonight, I will blog here about the results as they affect the Second Amendment. In an article last week for National Review Online, I previewed all the Senate and Governor races, and all the competitive House races. Election night starts with a net +3 for the Second Amendment in the Senate, […]
The Case for Abstaining from Ignorant Voting
Today, Americans will have an opportunity to vote on a wide range of candidates and ballot initiatives. In many cases, however, we will be voting on candidates and issues that we know very little about. It is rational for most voters to be ignorant about most issues, because the chance of casting a decisive ballot […]
Richard Epstein and Glen Whitman on Libertarians and the Presidential Election
Well-known libertarian scholars Richard Epstein and Glen Whitman have recently weighed in on a question that has been much-debated in the blogosphere: Who, if anyone, should libertarians support in the presidential election. Epstein argues that we should support Romney as the lesser of the two available evils: In the final countdown to what promises to […]
Some Key Referenda to Watch
By Ilya Somin on November 5, 2012 4:58 pm in Elections, Eminent Domain, Post-Kelo Reform, Property Rights, War on Drugs
In addition to the presidential and congressional elections tomorrow, there are also some important referenda initiatives on the ballot in many states. They include several on issues of special interest to me and many VC readers: property rights and the War on Drugs. Here in Virginia, we have Question 1, which would strengthen protection for […]
New Pew Poll Gives Obama a Three Point Lead
In my last post, I said that Obama should be favored to win the election, and suggested he has roughly a 65-70 percent chance of winning. My estimate of Romney’s chances was based in large part on his relatively strong showing in national polls, which still had him even with Obama late last week. Today, […]
Election Predictions
I wouldn’t take this prediction to the bank if I were a betting man. But, like co-blogger David Bernstein, I give Obama a slight edge, perhaps a 60-65 percent chance of victory. In the contest between national polls favoring Romney and battleground state polls favoring Obama, I give slightly greater credence to the latter. My […]
Adventures in Microtargeting
In this much-discussed recent article, Sasha Issenberg argues that Democrats are much better than Republicans at “microtargeting”: the art and science of tailoring messages to the proclivities of individual voters and contacting them directly by phone, mail, or sending a volunteer. Issenberg’s account is interesting and entertaining. And it’s certainly possible that the Democrats are […]
An Election Recount without Voter Registrations?
The North Dakota Senate election could be close — close enough to trigger a recount. Given that control of the Senate could be at stake, the party lawyers will no doubt descend ready for battle. But in ND there’s a twist: No voter registration. As Sasha Issenberg explains in Slate, North Dakota is the only […]
Overconfident Pundits Predicting Victory for Their Side
Given the extreme closeness of both the national and battleground state polls, one would think that serious political commentators would avoid making bold predictions about the outcome of the presidential race. After all, an overconfident pundit who turns out to be wrong will have egg on their face in just a few days. This is […]
Slate Quiz: Recognize the Year from the Electoral College Map
Lots of fun; take it here. Here’s Slate‘s blurb: Today, Slate challenges its readers to demonstrate their grasp of presidential election history. Check out the 12 electoral maps randomly generated from presidential elections since 1860. States are shaded according to the party of the candidate who won them: red for Republicans, blue for Democrats, and […]
May a State Ban Electioneering on Election Day?
The answer is pretty clearly “no,” given the First Amendment, and Emineth v. Jaeger (D.N.D. Oct. 29, 2012) has struck down such a North Dakota statute: Any person asking, soliciting, or in any manner trying to induce or persuade, any voter on an election day to vote or refrain from voting for any candidate or […]
How Should Libertarians Vote?
Continuing the series of posts examining how libertarian-leaning folks should vote (assuming they think it’s worth voting at all), Reason has published essays on the libertarian case for Obama (Mike Godwin), Romney (Robert Poole) and Gary Johnson (Nick Gillespie). Some may also be interested in this post by law professor Brad Smith explaining why he […]
When Will We Know How Ohio Votes?
The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the outcome of the Presidential election in Ohio may not be known until mid-November. This is because state election officials will not count provisional ballots until at least ten days after the election. Given the large number of provisional ballots in Ohio — a number that could increase due […]