Adam Teicholz of the Atlantic claims that the Volokh Conspiracy deserves much of the credit or blame for the possible upcoming defeat of the individual mandate in the Supreme Court.: Blogs — particularly a blog of big legal ideas called Volokh Conspiracy — have been central to shifting the conversation about the mandate challenges. At […]
Archive | Public Opinion
Public Opinion, Sympathetic Plaintiffs, and the Individual Mandate Case
By Ilya Somin on March 23, 2012 8:44 pm in Federalism, Health Care, Individual Mandate, Public Opinion
In a comment on my recent post on public opinion and the individual mandate case, University of Richmond law professor Kevin Walsh suggests that the anti-mandate forces might need sympathetic plaintiffs in order to prevail in the court of public opinion: Some say that the challengers to the individual mandate can win even if they […]
Public Opinion, the Individual Mandate, and the Supreme Court
By Ilya Somin on March 19, 2012 6:10 pm in Federalism, Health Care, Individual Mandate, Public Opinion
A recent Washington Post/ABC poll shows that 68% of the public want the Supreme Court to strike down the individual health insurance mandate. That includes 42% who want the Court to invalidate the entire Affordable Care Act and 26% who want it to strike down the mandate alone. If forced to choose, 52% of those […]
Radical Islamists Win Final Round of Egyptian Elections
Although it has been pushed out of the US headlines by the New Hampshire primaries, radical Islamist parties just won the lion’s share of the vote in the final round of the Egyptian elections. I wrote about why this sort of development was a likely and dangerous possibility in several posts going back to the […]
In Defense of Negative Campaigning
In every election year, politicians and pundits routinely attack negative campaigning, claiming that it is somehow inappropriate or harmful. This year, Newt Gingrich has been complaining about it especially loudly. But many others have said similar things. As I see it, negative campaigning is just as useful and just as legitimate as the positive kind. […]
Why North Koreans Cried for Kim Jong Il
A couple weeks ago, I criticized a CNN article that stated that North Koreans “revere” recently deceased communist dictator Kim Jong Il, without noting that those who fail to show officially mandated reverence for the “Dear Leader” are likely to face severe sanctions from the government. To its credit, CNN went on to publish a […]
Do North Koreans Really “Revere” Kim Jong Il?
This otherwise reasonable CNN article about recently deceased North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il claims that he was “revered at home” by his people, despite a negative reputation abroad: Regarded as one of the world’s most-repressive leaders, Kim Jong Il always cut a slightly bizarre figure. His diminutive stature and characteristically bouffant hair have been […]
Radical Islamists Make Gains in Egypt
Back in January, I expressed the fear that the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak’s dictatorship in Egypt might lead to a new regime that is as bad or worse than the old. I gave two reasons why this could happen: Illiberal forces in Egypt, especially radical Islamists, are much better organized than liberal democrats, and majority […]
Atheism, Religion, and Presidential Voting
The New York Times Room for Debate Forum has an interesting symposium on the role of religion in presidential elections. In his contribution, polling expert Andrew Kohut cites a 2007 Pew survey showing that atheism is viewed more negatively by voters than virtually any other possible trait of a presidential candidate. A whopping 63% of […]
Public Support for Marijuana Legalization Hits 50% for the First Time
A new Gallup poll shows that public support for legalizing the possession of marijuana has now hit a record-high 50%, up from 46% last year [HT: Tom Angell of Law Enforcement Against Prohibition]. Forty-six percent still oppose legalization. This continues a longstanding trend under which support for legalization has gradually but consistently risen from 12% […]
Egypt Sliding into Military Dictatorship
By Ilya Somin on October 11, 2011 5:06 pm in Democracy, Political Ignorance, Public Choice, Public Opinion
When the revolution that eventually overthrew Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak began, I warned that the end result could easily be a government as bad or worse than Mubarak’s was. In a revolutionary situation, liberal democratic forces often get outmaneuvered by more ruthless and better-organized opponents – even if majority public opinion would prefer a liberal […]
Is Public Opinion Becoming More Libertarian?
New York Times polling expert Nate Silver (who is no libertarian himself) summarizes some recent data suggesting that the public is becoming more libertarian: Libertarianism has been touted as the wave of America’s political future for many years, generally with more enthusiasm than evidence. But there are some tangible signs that Americans’ attitudes are in […]
Reflections on the Potential Revolution in Egypt
By Ilya Somin on January 29, 2011 11:18 pm in Democracy, Political Ignorance, Public Choice, Public Opinion
I don’t have any brilliant suggestions for how President Obama should handle the situation in Egypt. But history and economic theory do give us some insight on why the revolt against the government started so suddenly and unexpectedly. They also highlight the danger that any regime that replaces incumbent dictator Hosni Mubarak might turn out […]
Kansas Seeks to Join Anti-Obamacare Lawsuit, Bringing the Number of States Challenging the Law to 26
By Ilya Somin on January 13, 2011 11:27 pm in Federalism, Health Care, Individual Mandate, Public Opinion, Supreme Court
The state of Kansas recently asked to join the lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the Obama health care plan filed by 20 state governments and the National Federation of Independent Business. Ohio, Wisconsin, and Wyoming are also seeking to join the multistate lawsuit, while Virginia and Oklahoma have filed separate challenges to the law. That […]
“Guerrilla Polling” in Repressive Societies
I have several times criticized Western observers who naively assume that pro-government statements by people who live under repressive regimes necessarily reflect their true opinions (see here and here). Even if they actually hate the government, such people have obvious incentives to pretend otherwise in order to avoid punishment. At the same time, it is […]