Tradesports and Supreme Court Nominations:
I've seen lots of blogging about betting sites on who will be nominated to replace O'Connor, including Jim's post below about the betting at Maybe I am just missing something obvious, but I confess I don't understand why we would expect such sites to reveal anything particularly useful on the question of O'connor's replacement.

  Here's my thinking. The choice of O'Connor's replacement belongs to one man, George W. Bush. A few inside advisors are privy to his thinking, but I think it's fair to assume that neither Bush nor any of his inside advisors are placing any bets on sites like This means that the people who are placing bets presumably are outsiders who are getting their predictions from newspaper articles, blogs, horoscopes, etc., and then placing bets. As a result, a site like TradeSports would seem to just mirror the collective common wisdom of newspapers and blogs on a question like this. Am I missing something?