The Volokh Conspiracy - Michael Totten in the Middle East.--

Over the last few weeks, I have been reading some of Michael Totten's posts and articles from his travels in the Middle East, in particular, Lebanon, Libya, and Egypt. He has a nice conversational style, with wonderful local detail and often a light touch in making his bigger political points.

Totten has a post this weekend describing a conversation with a single western woman traveling in Egypt, describing her street harassment by Egyptian men (tip to Glenn).

In mid-December, Totten had an article in LA Weekly on his meal and other contacts with Hezbollah: "Guess Who's Coming to Iftar: A Meal to Remember with Hezbollah." It seems that Hezbollah officials do not have a finely developed sense of humor.

But Totten's observation that I found most distressing and most insightful was made in a post recounting an evening at a Cairo bar he spent with the Egyptian blogger Big Pharoah:

I asked Big Pharaoh what he thought would happen if Egypt held a legitimate free and fair election instead of this bullshit staged by Mubarak.

"The Muslim Brotherhood would win," he said. "They would beat Mubarak and the liberals."

I was afraid he was going to say that.

"I've had this theory for a while now," I said. "It looks like some, if not most, Middle East countries are going to have to live under an Islamic state for a while and get it out of their system."

Big Pharaoh laughed grimly.

"Sorry," I said. "That's just how it looks."

He buried his head on his arms.

"Take Iranians," I said. "They used to think Islamism was a fantastic idea. Now they hate it. Same goes in Afghanistan. Algerians don't think too much of Islamism either after 150,000 people were killed in the civil war. I hate to say this, but it looks like Egypt will have to learn this the hard way."

"You are right," he said. "You are right. I went to an Egyptian chat room on the Internet and asked 15 people if they fasted during Ramadan. All of them said they fasted during at least most of it. I went to an Iranian chat room and asked the same question. 14 out of 15 said they did not fast for even one single day."

"Egypt didn't used to be like this," I said.

"Nasser's biggest crime was not establishing democracy when he took over," he said. "Back then, Egyptian people were liberal. It would have worked then. But not now."

Unfortunately, this makes sense. One way or another, it may be likely that some Muslim Middle East countries will be ruled by radical Islamist governments, as happened in Iran and Afghanistan. In such a country, in a decade or two the people are likely to turn against the government and radical Islamism. But ridding a country of a totalitarian regime can be difficult, often taking decades to accomplish. I fear that one or more of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, or Iraq may go through this Islamist stage in the next few decades, with enormous problems for the rest of the world. As many have argued, we may have entered a "long war" against Islamic totalitarianism (and the terrorism it breeds) that may last a century.

	[Jim Lindgren, January 15, 2006 at 5:43pm] Trackbacks Michael Totten in the Middle East.-- Over the last few weeks, I have been reading some of Michael Totten's posts and articles from his travels in the Middle East, in particular, Lebanon, Libya, and Egypt. He has a nice conversational style, with wonderful local detail and often a light touch in making his bigger political points. Totten has a post this weekend describing a conversation with a single western woman traveling in Egypt, describing her street harassment by Egyptian men (tip to Glenn). In mid-December, Totten had an article in LA Weekly on his meal and other contacts with Hezbollah: "Guess Who's Coming to Iftar: A Meal to Remember with Hezbollah." It seems that Hezbollah officials do not have a finely developed sense of humor. But Totten's observation that I found most distressing and most insightful was made in a post recounting an evening at a Cairo bar he spent with the Egyptian blogger Big Pharoah: I asked Big Pharaoh what he thought would happen if Egypt held a legitimate free and fair election instead of this bullshit staged by Mubarak. "The Muslim Brotherhood would win," he said. "They would beat Mubarak and the liberals." I was afraid he was going to say that. "I've had this theory for a while now," I said. "It looks like some, if not most, Middle East countries are going to have to live under an Islamic state for a while and get it out of their system." Big Pharaoh laughed grimly. "Sorry," I said. "That's just how it looks." He buried his head on his arms. "Take Iranians," I said. "They used to think Islamism was a fantastic idea. Now they hate it. Same goes in Afghanistan. Algerians don't think too much of Islamism either after 150,000 people were killed in the civil war. I hate to say this, but it looks like Egypt will have to learn this the hard way." "You are right," he said. "You are right. I went to an Egyptian chat room on the Internet and asked 15 people if they fasted during Ramadan. All of them said they fasted during at least most of it. I went to an Iranian chat room and asked the same question. 14 out of 15 said they did not fast for even one single day." "Egypt didn't used to be like this," I said. "Nasser's biggest crime was not establishing democracy when he took over," he said. "Back then, Egyptian people were liberal. It would have worked then. But not now." Unfortunately, this makes sense. One way or another, it may be likely that some Muslim Middle East countries will be ruled by radical Islamist governments, as happened in Iran and Afghanistan. In such a country, in a decade or two the people are likely to turn against the government and radical Islamism. But ridding a country of a totalitarian regime can be difficult, often taking decades to accomplish. I fear that one or more of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, or Iraq may go through this Islamist stage in the next few decades, with enormous problems for the rest of the world. As many have argued, we may have entered a "long war" against Islamic totalitarianism (and the terrorism it breeds) that may last a century.