The Volokh Conspiracy - Ken Arrow strikes again:

Every single poll about the upcoming French presidential election is consistent with the following statements:

Moderate-right candidate François Bayrou would beat either of the other two main candidates, conservative Nicolas Sarkozy or socialist Ségolène Royal, in a two-way race. The second round of the presidential elections is such a two-way race, among the top two vote-getters in the first round.
Not only would Bayrou beat Sarkozy handily in the second round, he would also beat Royal by an even greater margin than Sarkozy would (according to the most recent poll that asked the question, on Feb. 27).
But Bayrou has been coming in third place in all the polls (except the Mar. 9 poll, where he was tied with Royal at 23%). Of course there's the margin of error and all that. But chances are he won't make it to the second round, even though he would beat either of the other two main candidates if he got there.

Making some simplifying assumptions -- all Le Pen voters support the most right-wing candidate, and all "other" voters support the most left-wing candidate (this makes sense because they're all communists or greens, except for a 1% conservative traditionalist candidate) -- and putting these together with the second-round poll results from Feb. 27, I conclude that Bayrou is the second choice of 75% of French voters.

This is why Bayrou only got 17% in the Feb. 27 first-round poll (to Sarkozy's 31 and Royal's 25) but would still beat Sarkozy 54-46 and Royal 55-45. But under a runoff system (or a rank-order voting system, which is similar in practice to what the French are doing here), someone who's everyone's second choice gets eliminated early on. But any other system probably has even worse pathologies.

Moral: You can't win!

For previous posts of mine on France and the French elections, see here, here, here, and here. Note my retraction here. Note also that Bayrou said, back in 2002, when he refused to have his party, the UDF, be assimilated into the new umbrella conservative party, the UMP: "I won't be phagocyted or digested by anyone." (Said a gay friend of mine: "O.K.! I won't cite him!")

	[Sasha Volokh, March 15, 2007 at 10:03am] Trackbacks Ken Arrow strikes again: Every single poll about the upcoming French presidential election is consistent with the following statements: Moderate-right candidate François Bayrou would beat either of the other two main candidates, conservative Nicolas Sarkozy or socialist Ségolène Royal, in a two-way race. The second round of the presidential elections is such a two-way race, among the top two vote-getters in the first round. Not only would Bayrou beat Sarkozy handily in the second round, he would also beat Royal by an even greater margin than Sarkozy would (according to the most recent poll that asked the question, on Feb. 27). But Bayrou has been coming in third place in all the polls (except the Mar. 9 poll, where he was tied with Royal at 23%). Of course there's the margin of error and all that. But chances are he won't make it to the second round, even though he would beat either of the other two main candidates if he got there. Making some simplifying assumptions -- all Le Pen voters support the most right-wing candidate, and all "other" voters support the most left-wing candidate (this makes sense because they're all communists or greens, except for a 1% conservative traditionalist candidate) -- and putting these together with the second-round poll results from Feb. 27, I conclude that Bayrou is the second choice of 75% of French voters. This is why Bayrou only got 17% in the Feb. 27 first-round poll (to Sarkozy's 31 and Royal's 25) but would still beat Sarkozy 54-46 and Royal 55-45. But under a runoff system (or a rank-order voting system, which is similar in practice to what the French are doing here), someone who's everyone's second choice gets eliminated early on. But any other system probably has even worse pathologies. Moral: You can't win! For previous posts of mine on France and the French elections, see here, here, here, and here. Note my retraction here. Note also that Bayrou said, back in 2002, when he refused to have his party, the UDF, be assimilated into the new umbrella conservative party, the UMP: "I won't be phagocyted or digested by anyone." (Said a gay friend of mine: "O.K.! I won't cite him!")