The Volokh Conspiracy - Some Republican Presidential Polling Data:

Prowling around the web while taking a break, I stumbled across some interesting information on the Republican Presidential nomination that I figured I'd pass along.

If I'm reading the most recent set of polls correctly, it looks like the major impact of a Fred Thompson entry into the race for the Republican nomination would be to draw from John McCain. In fact, the RCP Poll average has Thompson now leading McCain and eyeballing the chart it looks like Thompson's recent rise in the poll largely mirrors McCain's fall.

Of course, this is all national data. Polls in Iowa and New Hampshire look somewhat different, as Romney does much better in those state polls than nationwide (John Edwards has a similar scenario on the Democratic side in Iowa).

One interesting observation is that Rudy Giuliani seems to be polling unusually well in Florida, compared to other states. This may be in part because of one factor I hadn't previously consideredthe high level of migration of New Yorkers into Florida:

The 2000 Census revealed that, between 1995 and 2000 alone, 308,000 people moved from New York to Florida -- the largest state-to-state flow in the U.S. At last count, nearly 1.5 million Floridians were born in New York, including five members from Florida's current House delegation. Two are Democrats born in Queens: Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Robert Wexler. The three Republicans were born outside New York City: Ginny Brown-Waite was born in Albany, John Mica in Binghamton and Dave Weldon in Amityville.

Assuming Florida is a key battleground state again, the Florida-New York connection is an interesting wild card in the Presidential election for Rudy (as well as Hillary Clinton presumably, but to a lesser extent). Moreover, this raw number of immigrants may understate the New York influence on Florida--my in-laws, for instance, are NYC-Florida snowbirds who hold Florida as their primary residence. They don't seem atypical in this. Many Floridians seem to remain very attached to New York, even going so far as to maintain their allegiance to the Knicks, a demonstration of how deep their roots run.

Thompson is also now trading at the highest price on Intrade . There too McCain's stock appears to be falling. I wasn't able to find a prospectus on him in the Iowa Electronic Market, so unless I missed it, he is still in the Rest of Field there.

	[Todd Zywicki, June 12, 2007 at 4:03pm] Trackbacks Some Republican Presidential Polling Data: Prowling around the web while taking a break, I stumbled across some interesting information on the Republican Presidential nomination that I figured I'd pass along. If I'm reading the most recent set of polls correctly, it looks like the major impact of a Fred Thompson entry into the race for the Republican nomination would be to draw from John McCain. In fact, the RCP Poll average has Thompson now leading McCain and eyeballing the chart it looks like Thompson's recent rise in the poll largely mirrors McCain's fall. Of course, this is all national data. Polls in Iowa and New Hampshire look somewhat different, as Romney does much better in those state polls than nationwide (John Edwards has a similar scenario on the Democratic side in Iowa). One interesting observation is that Rudy Giuliani seems to be polling unusually well in Florida, compared to other states. This may be in part because of one factor I hadn't previously consideredthe high level of migration of New Yorkers into Florida: The 2000 Census revealed that, between 1995 and 2000 alone, 308,000 people moved from New York to Florida -- the largest state-to-state flow in the U.S. At last count, nearly 1.5 million Floridians were born in New York, including five members from Florida's current House delegation. Two are Democrats born in Queens: Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Robert Wexler. The three Republicans were born outside New York City: Ginny Brown-Waite was born in Albany, John Mica in Binghamton and Dave Weldon in Amityville. Assuming Florida is a key battleground state again, the Florida-New York connection is an interesting wild card in the Presidential election for Rudy (as well as Hillary Clinton presumably, but to a lesser extent). Moreover, this raw number of immigrants may understate the New York influence on Florida--my in-laws, for instance, are NYC-Florida snowbirds who hold Florida as their primary residence. They don't seem atypical in this. Many Floridians seem to remain very attached to New York, even going so far as to maintain their allegiance to the Knicks, a demonstration of how deep their roots run. Thompson is also now trading at the highest price on Intrade . There too McCain's stock appears to be falling. I wasn't able to find a prospectus on him in the Iowa Electronic Market, so unless I missed it, he is still in the Rest of Field there.