Because all four favorites made the NCAA Final Four and because more points are awarded for the last few games, the winner of the Volokh Conspiracy's March Madness contest will likely be determined by whoever correctly chooses the winner and loser of the Championship game. Most people currently leading the contest chose either UCLA or NC to beat the other team in the Finals.

I may be wrong, but from looking through the choices online, it appears that in 7 of the 8 scenarios for the Final Game, the contest winners would be the following:

a. NC over UCLA: I Can Haz Bobblehead? (in 1st place overall)

b. NC over Memphis: Nonunique (currently 9th)

c. UCLA over NC: Scass (currently 2d)

d. UCLA over Kansas: Which is what? (currently 18th)

e. Kansas over UCLA: Circ230 (currently 6th)

f. Kansas over Memphis: Jim Lindgren (currently 3d)

g. Memphis over NC: Baclaw (currently 18th)

As for the 8th scenario — Memphis over Kansas in the title game — I don't know who would win, but it might well be Baclaw (who would definitely win if Memphis defeated NC in the title game).

Random comments:

1. Participating in a March Madness pool is fun; it increases my interest in the games. I have been in only 2 such pools before this year, one of which I was lucky enough to win.

2. At least this year, on average, picking favorites works better than picking underdogs. Ilya Somin, who picked only favorites, is tied for 6th place among 252 entries, an extremely impressive showing for just picking the higher seed to win every game. He cannot win the contest, however, because if he wins the rest of the way, he will be edged out by I Can Haz Bobblehead?, who is currently leading all participants. This suggests to me that, in a small contest, picking all favorites is likely to be the optimal strategy, but with 200 contestants, it might or might not be. Perhaps those with more experience with these pools in prior years can enlighten me on the efficacy of this strategy.

3. Besides Ilya tied for 6th place, among other VC bloggers Todd Zywicki is currently tied for 9th place and I am in 3d place. Given Kansas's struggles today, I'm not feeling very good about my picking Kansas to beat Memphis in the finals. If most of our leading contestants are correct and the Championship game is between NC and UCLA, I won't be anywhere near the lead in the final standings because these contestants would earn at least an additional 32 points for picking the semi-final games correctly. If I should be lucky enough win it all, I will decline the extremely valuable prize in favor of whoever takes 2d place.

4. In the comments, feel free to comment on strategies for March Madness pools based on this or past years.