The Volokh Conspiracy - VP Predictions Open Comment Thread:

Obama may announce running mate later today

WASHINGTON - Presidential candidate Barack Obama said Friday the running mate he has chosen — but has not yet announced — had to meet three standards to join the Democratic ticket: Prepared to be president, able to help him govern and willing to challenge his thinking.

Those criteria did little to narrow the guessing game as Obama prepared for a massive rally in Illinois on Saturday to present his No. 2 to the nation and undertake a pre-convention tour of battleground states. He planned to disclose his choice through text messages to supporters, perhaps as early as Friday.

Here is an open comment thread for your guesses on Obama's choice for running mate. Serious predictions and reasons are preferred.

My guess: Hillary. No other candidate would so shore up Obama's still shaky support among Democratic women, unify the party, and turn the convention (and all the Clinton participation now scheduled) into a love fest. For many reasons, Iraq is no longer the major dividing issue between them it was in the primaries. Shockingly, Hillary now appeals to a different base of voters than Obama and would be effective in debates. The MSM will go ga-ga.

The strongest argument against this being his pick is for his ability to be an effective President if elected, with the Clintons potentially undermining him. The second strongest argument against it is its obvious potential to galvananize the Republican base. Third strongest argument against it is the Clinton fatigue that led Democratic voters to favor the untested Obama in the first place. Fourth strongest reason: it doubles down on the diversity bet.

Still, given the alternative candidates being discussed (Kaine, Biden, Bayh), I just think this will seem to make the most sense to the Obama campaign now that the polls are so tight. And, given the known alternatives, it makes the most sense to me too. If he were way ahead at this point there is no way that this would be his choice.

What do you think? What is YOUR prediction. Now is the time to get your view on the record. Then you can say "I told you so."

	[Randy Barnett, August 22, 2008 at 10:41am] Trackbacks VP Predictions Open Comment Thread: Obama may announce running mate later today WASHINGTON - Presidential candidate Barack Obama said Friday the running mate he has chosen — but has not yet announced — had to meet three standards to join the Democratic ticket: Prepared to be president, able to help him govern and willing to challenge his thinking. Those criteria did little to narrow the guessing game as Obama prepared for a massive rally in Illinois on Saturday to present his No. 2 to the nation and undertake a pre-convention tour of battleground states. He planned to disclose his choice through text messages to supporters, perhaps as early as Friday. Here is an open comment thread for your guesses on Obama's choice for running mate. Serious predictions and reasons are preferred. My guess: Hillary. No other candidate would so shore up Obama's still shaky support among Democratic women, unify the party, and turn the convention (and all the Clinton participation now scheduled) into a love fest. For many reasons, Iraq is no longer the major dividing issue between them it was in the primaries. Shockingly, Hillary now appeals to a different base of voters than Obama and would be effective in debates. The MSM will go ga-ga. The strongest argument against this being his pick is for his ability to be an effective President if elected, with the Clintons potentially undermining him. The second strongest argument against it is its obvious potential to galvananize the Republican base. Third strongest argument against it is the Clinton fatigue that led Democratic voters to favor the untested Obama in the first place. Fourth strongest reason: it doubles down on the diversity bet. Still, given the alternative candidates being discussed (Kaine, Biden, Bayh), I just think this will seem to make the most sense to the Obama campaign now that the polls are so tight. And, given the known alternatives, it makes the most sense to me too. If he were way ahead at this point there is no way that this would be his choice. What do you think? What is YOUR prediction. Now is the time to get your view on the record. Then you can say "I told you so."