The Volokh Conspiracy - The Enormous Odds Against McCain:

In the blogosphere and elsewhere, some conservative commentators have argued that John McCain could win the election if only he adopted this or that rhetorical line, chose a better running mate than Sarah Palin, or otherwise adjusted his campaign strategy. On the other side of the political spectrum, some liberals believe that Obama is winning because the voters agree with his liberal ideology and otherwise greatly like him. Both sides ignore the fact that the historical odds are hugely stacked against McCain.

Voters tend to turn against the party of the incumbent officeholders whenever things seem to be going badly - even if there isn't any real proof that the problems are the incumbent party's fault. They even punish incumbent governors when economic conditions deteriorate because of bad weather. Today, voters have an exceptionally negative view of the status quo. They are angry about the state of the economy, the mishandling of the Iraq War, and other real and imagined failures. Fairly or not (I personally think that the Republicans do in fact deserve a good deal of blame), the voters blame the Republicans for these problems. The electoral odds are therefore very heavily stacked against McCain. If he were to win, it would probably be the greatest upset in the history of American presidential elections.

Showing better sense than some other pundits, conservative columnist Byron York gives a good summary of the conditions working against McCain:

The difficulty of succeeding a two-term president of one's own party — a feat accomplished only once since Truman succeeded FDR.

The even greater difficulty of succeeding a two-term president of one's own party who has a job-approval rating of 25 percent and a disapproval rating of 70 percent, as George W. Bush had in a recent Gallup poll.

The historically high proportion of Americans who say the country is on the wrong track — as high as 90 percent in a recent Washington Post survey.

The enthusiasm gap, with far fewer Republicans than Democrats saying they are fired up about supporting their candidate.

The Republicans' deficit in party identification, which ranges between five and ten percentage points.

The financial crisis, including the 5,500-point fall in the Dow Jones Industrial Average between November 2007 and October 2008.

The war in Iraq, with nearly 4,200 Americans dead and a majority of Americans judging that the gains have not been worth the cost....

In this environment, McCain is actually doing very well to be down by only about 5 to 7 points in recent national polls.

I have little love for McCain. I think he is wrong on many policy issues, and that his temperament may not be right for the presidency. But he is not losing because he is a bad campaigner or because Obama is unusually appealing (though in some ways he is). He's losing because he and the Republicans are battling overwhelming odds. No amount of clever campaign maneuvers is likely to change that.

	[Ilya Somin, October 29, 2008 at 12:53am] Trackbacks The Enormous Odds Against McCain: In the blogosphere and elsewhere, some conservative commentators have argued that John McCain could win the election if only he adopted this or that rhetorical line, chose a better running mate than Sarah Palin, or otherwise adjusted his campaign strategy. On the other side of the political spectrum, some liberals believe that Obama is winning because the voters agree with his liberal ideology and otherwise greatly like him. Both sides ignore the fact that the historical odds are hugely stacked against McCain. Voters tend to turn against the party of the incumbent officeholders whenever things seem to be going badly - even if there isn't any real proof that the problems are the incumbent party's fault. They even punish incumbent governors when economic conditions deteriorate because of bad weather. Today, voters have an exceptionally negative view of the status quo. They are angry about the state of the economy, the mishandling of the Iraq War, and other real and imagined failures. Fairly or not (I personally think that the Republicans do in fact deserve a good deal of blame), the voters blame the Republicans for these problems. The electoral odds are therefore very heavily stacked against McCain. If he were to win, it would probably be the greatest upset in the history of American presidential elections. Showing better sense than some other pundits, conservative columnist Byron York gives a good summary of the conditions working against McCain: The difficulty of succeeding a two-term president of one's own party — a feat accomplished only once since Truman succeeded FDR. The even greater difficulty of succeeding a two-term president of one's own party who has a job-approval rating of 25 percent and a disapproval rating of 70 percent, as George W. Bush had in a recent Gallup poll. The historically high proportion of Americans who say the country is on the wrong track — as high as 90 percent in a recent Washington Post survey. The enthusiasm gap, with far fewer Republicans than Democrats saying they are fired up about supporting their candidate. The Republicans' deficit in party identification, which ranges between five and ten percentage points. The financial crisis, including the 5,500-point fall in the Dow Jones Industrial Average between November 2007 and October 2008. The war in Iraq, with nearly 4,200 Americans dead and a majority of Americans judging that the gains have not been worth the cost.... In this environment, McCain is actually doing very well to be down by only about 5 to 7 points in recent national polls. I have little love for McCain. I think he is wrong on many policy issues, and that his temperament may not be right for the presidency. But he is not losing because he is a bad campaigner or because Obama is unusually appealing (though in some ways he is). He's losing because he and the Republicans are battling overwhelming odds. No amount of clever campaign maneuvers is likely to change that.