The Volokh Conspiracy - Polls Hold Firm for Obama.

The slight move toward McCain in the national polls appears to have stalled. In most polls, Obama has gained a bit in the last few days. The only exception among those outfits who polled through Saturday is the IBD/TIPP poll, which shows only a 2% lead for Obama.

The betting services are even more encouraging for Obama, particularly state by state. If McCain were to win on Tuesday, given the improvements in polling since 1948 it would be a much bigger upset for pollsters than Truman over Dewey.

BTW, I was polled by Rasmussen on Saturday. The automated operation was professionally handled, though I noted that the question about presidential approval for Bush preceded the question about who one favored in the 2008 election, which might suppress expressed McCain support very slightly. Other questions that might influence the 2008 presidential preference question were asked near the end of the survey, as they should be. It made me wonder if the outlier polls showing double digit leads for Obama have even more serious question-order problems than polls (like Rasmussen) showing 5-8% leads.

	[Jim Lindgren, November 2, 2008 at 3:01pm] Trackbacks Polls Hold Firm for Obama. The slight move toward McCain in the national polls appears to have stalled. In most polls, Obama has gained a bit in the last few days. The only exception among those outfits who polled through Saturday is the IBD/TIPP poll, which shows only a 2% lead for Obama. The betting services are even more encouraging for Obama, particularly state by state. If McCain were to win on Tuesday, given the improvements in polling since 1948 it would be a much bigger upset for pollsters than Truman over Dewey. BTW, I was polled by Rasmussen on Saturday. The automated operation was professionally handled, though I noted that the question about presidential approval for Bush preceded the question about who one favored in the 2008 election, which might suppress expressed McCain support very slightly. Other questions that might influence the 2008 presidential preference question were asked near the end of the survey, as they should be. It made me wonder if the outlier polls showing double digit leads for Obama have even more serious question-order problems than polls (like Rasmussen) showing 5-8% leads.