A reader in the comments:
It's only because the last two elections were so close that this one seems remarkable. I don't know that I'd call it "fairly close," but it certain isn't a blowout, landslide, tsunami, etc., by historical standards, but just a mundane victory.Consider the ratio of winners' votes to runners'-up votes in the last 25 Presidential elections.
Obama won a clear victory with a ratio of 1.13 over McCain. (63.0 / 55.8 = 1.13)
But by any reasonable historical standard, this election was actually fairly close.
The average over the last 25 elections has been 1.30. For the last 12 its 1.22....
Winner RunnerUp Ratio Contest
2000 0.479 0.484 0.98 Bush - Gore
1960 0.497 0.496 1.00 Kennedy - Nixon
1968 0.434 0.427 1.01 Nixon - Humphrey
1976 0.501 0.48 1.04 Carter - Ford
2004 0.507 0.483 1.04 Bush - Kerry
1916 0.492 0.461 1.06 Wilson - Hughes
1948 0.496 0.451 1.09 Truman - Dewey
2008 0.52 0.46 1.13 Obama - McCain
1992 0.43 0.377 1.14 Clinton - Bush
1944 0.534 0.459 1.16 Roosevelt - Dewey
1988 0.534 0.456 1.17 Bush - Dukakis
1996 0.4924 0.4071 1.20 Clinton - Dole
1940 0.547 0.448 1.22 Roosevelt - Willkie
1980 0.507 0.41 1.23 Reagan - Carter
1952 0.552 0.443 1.24 Eisenhower - Stevenson
1956 0.574 0.42 1.36 Eisenhower - Stevenson
1928 0.582 0.408 1.42 Hoover - Smith
1932 0.574 0.397 1.44 Roosevelt - Hoover
1984 0.588 0.406 1.44 Reagan - Mondale
1912 0.418 0.274 1.52 Wilson - Roosevelt
1964 0.611 0.385 1.58 Johnson - Goldwater
1972 0.607 0.375 1.61 Nixon - McGovern
1936 0.608 0.365 1.66 Roosevelt - Landon
1920 0.603 0.341 1.76 Harding - Cox
1924 0.54 0.288 1.87 Coolidge - Davis
Related Posts (on one page):
- More on the Lack of a Democratic Tsunami:
- Senate Races: