The information delivered by new technologies about policy results will be more effective insofar as it changes people’s minds. But many people are biased. They hold to their preconceptions about the wisdom of policy, regardless of the new evidence presented. Thus, another urgent task for adapting to technological acceleration is to help democracy better update […]
Tag Archives | Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets and the Danger of Manipulation
The most frequent critique of my proposal to legalize prediction markets stemmed from fear of manipulation or gaming. A specific concern is that manipulators will choose to skew the markets at the time of some democratic event, such as a vote in Congress. For instance, those who stand to gain from a President’s stimulus package […]