The Volokh Conspiracy - Democrats Favored in Betting on Individual Senate Races, But Not for Taking the Senate.--

Late Monday Night, Nov. 6

According to the betting at Iowa Electronic Markets, the Republicans have about a 70% chance of retaining the Senate.

According to the betting at Tradesports, the Republicans have a 66-69% chance of retaining the Senate, which is down from a few days ago.

Yet the Democrats are ahead in all of Tradesports' closest Senate races (probabilities are approximate, within the bid/ask spreads):

Implicit Probability of Democratic Victory in contested Senate Races:

VA: 57%
MO: 60%
RI: 66%
MD: 73%
MT: 77%

The closest race in which Republicans are leading is TN: 15% probability of Democratic victory.

I look at such things because I'm terrible at predicting elections myself. If I were inclined to bet on this election, I would take the 7 to 3 odds and bet on a Democratic takeover of the Senate, since I think that the chance of the Democrats taking the Senate is closer to 50/50, even though the Iowa Markets are almost always correct.

	[Jim Lindgren, November 7, 2006 at 12:44am] Trackbacks Democrats Favored in Betting on Individual Senate Races, But Not for Taking the Senate.-- Late Monday Night, Nov. 6 According to the betting at Iowa Electronic Markets, the Republicans have about a 70% chance of retaining the Senate. According to the betting at Tradesports, the Republicans have a 66-69% chance of retaining the Senate, which is down from a few days ago. Yet the Democrats are ahead in all of Tradesports' closest Senate races (probabilities are approximate, within the bid/ask spreads): Implicit Probability of Democratic Victory in contested Senate Races: VA: 57% MO: 60% RI: 66% MD: 73% MT: 77% The closest race in which Republicans are leading is TN: 15% probability of Democratic victory. I look at such things because I'm terrible at predicting elections myself. If I were inclined to bet on this election, I would take the 7 to 3 odds and bet on a Democratic takeover of the Senate, since I think that the chance of the Democrats taking the Senate is closer to 50/50, even though the Iowa Markets are almost always correct.