A commenter to my previous post asked if I would think it was cool if people started coming up with creative ways to evade their taxes. Well, I think this is a cool way to induce tax payment.
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Saturday, November 11, 2006Tax evasion:
A commenter to my previous post asked if I would think it was cool if people started coming up with creative ways to evade their taxes. Well, I think this is a cool way to induce tax payment. Related Posts (on one page): Federalism and the Abortion Case:
Reading over the transcript from last Tuesday's Supreme Court argument involving the federal partial-birth abortion ban, I was interested to see that both Justice Stevens and Justice Ginsburg appear to have become sensitized to the scope of federal power and the role of the states in our federal system:
JUSTICE GINSBURG: . . . [U]p until now, all regulation on access to abortion has been state regulation and this measure is saying to the states, like it or not, the Federal Government is going to ban a particular practice and we are going to take away the choice from the states, in an area where up until now it's, it's been open to the states to make those decisions. How should that weigh in this case? And it is something new. Related Posts (on one page):
Israeli Security and Palestinian Students:
There has been a bit of a brouhaha lately over the decision of Israeli security officials to ban students from the Palestinian territories from Israeli universities. The Israeli government has been criticized by Israeli university presidents for this decision, as well as by various international bodies, including the AAUP. The decision strikes me as unwise, but then again, I don't have the same information as the security officials. Unfortunately, Israeli leftists (not unlike some of their American counterparts) like to brand as "racist" anything they disagree with. Thus, an Israeli professor (visiting at an American university) accused some of his American Jewish colleagues on an email list to which I subscribe of defending the Israeli government's "racist" policy, racist because it "profiles" all Palestinian students as potential terrorists. I responded (in an email the moderator chose not to publish) that while Israel's decision may be unwise, improvident, or whatnot, it is by no means racist to bar students from an enemy entity from one's universities. I added Hamas that is the governing authority of the P.A. Hamas is clearly in a state of war with Israel. Even with regard to Fatah, the opposition party, several component groups (e.g., Al Asqa Martyrs Brigade) are at war with Israel. The idea that Israel is "profiling" all Palestinians as terrorists is ludicrous. It's like saying that banning all German student applicants to American universities during WWII because of fear that some might be Nazi saboteurs was "racist" profiling (all German and Italian students present in the U.S. during WWII were either deported or interned for the duration of the War). Wouldn't it be plausible that even someone who generally had very warm feelings towards Germans might conclude that (a) some German students might be susceptible to being recruited for sabotage and (b) the German government might send some saboteurs to the U.S. under the guise of students? It's actually a more dramatic situation with regard to the Palestinians, because, as I understand it, they are seeking to "commute" from the enemy terroritory to Israel daily, which means that even if they are cleared as a security risk at first, there would still be the danger of their ideological or other circumstances changing thereafter. Clearly, there are Palestinian terrorists, many of them are young, and terrorist groups would have no compunctions about using "students" to further their aims, just like they sent a woman with medical issues a few months ago to the Israeli border with Gaza to try to perpetrate a terrorist act at a hospital (a woman who, btw, had previously received Israeli medical aid at the very same hospital). It could be that the Israeli security officials are overreacting, and that it would be better to consider things on a case-by-case basis. But it also needs to be considered that having to vet students case-by-case requires resources that could be spent on other security matters, and is inherently far from foolproof. To reduce this to an issue of "racism" is simply puerile and insulting to those who disagree with the professor who made the accusation. Again, I'm in favor of allowing Palestinian students (remember, we are not talking about Israeli citizens, but essentially nationals of an enemy foreign entity) to study in Israel, if it could be done in a way that would not jeopardize security. But to assume that anyone who defends giving the security agencies the discretion to implement a ban based on their conclusion that security can't be guaranteed, at least at an acceptable price, is defending racism, is simply uncalled for. Do You Want To Be a Law Professor?
I'm about to return from a long blogging hiatus, but let me begin with an announcement that may be of interest to those who plan a career in legal academia. Duke Law School has established a program to bring aspiring law teachers into the law school as visiting assistant professors. Visiting assistant professors spend two academic years at the law school (to give them time to work on scholarship in anticipation of their entry on the law school teaching market). Each visiting assistant professor is provided with an office and is invited to participate in faculty activities open to visiting professors. Each has a very light teaching load – one course per year. Selection for participation in this program is competitive, based on potential for success in an academic career. The website for this program is at http://www.law.duke.edu/teaching. Future of NSA Surveillance Legislation:
President Bush has urged the lame-duck Congress to pass legislation restructuring the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act and explicitly permitting the NSA Terrorist Surveillance program. As you might expect, Democratic leaders are, um, unenthusiastic about the plan: they have suggested that they'll filibuster any attempt to pass the legislation before the new Congress.
Today the AP is reporting that the Bush Administration isn't giving up: The Bush administration has a backup plan. In speeches over the next few weeks, the Justice Department will launch a new campaign for the legislation by casting the choice as one between supporting the program or dropping it altogether - and appearing soft on al-Qaida.The problem with this "backup plan," it seems to me, is that authorizing the Terrorist Surveillance Program is only one of several goals of the NSA legislation. The legislation does much more than authorize the program; it amounts to a dramatic shift in the relationship between executive and legislative power in the area of intelligence surveillance, and authorizing the TSP is only one consequence of that shift. I hope that Gonzales and Wainstein won't suggest that the choices are to pass this particular legislation or shut the program down. There are a lot of other options. The Georgetown "Apostles":
This is cool. Related Posts (on one page):
Friday, November 10, 2006Payment for Organs, Medical Self-Defense, and the Risk that the Poor Would Be Unduly Pressured Into Selling Organs:
I continue the excerpts from my Medical Self-Defense article, by rebutting arguments that banning payment for organs is necessary to avoid very grave harms. In this post, I deal with the argument that banning payment is needed to keep poor providers from being improperly exploited. In earlier posts, I've discussed the risk of organ robbery, and the argument that banning payment is needed to keep rich patients from "jumping the queue." In future posts, I deal with the argument that organ payment bans are needed to avoid supposedly inherently improper "commodification" of the human body, and with some other arguments that have come up in the comments. As before, please recall that the footnotes are available here, so if you wonder where I got some of the data, you might check there first. Note also that this argument is a small part of what must be at most a 30-page essay; I thus can't get into it in too much detail. At the same time, I may have room to add a few paragraphs here or there, so if you think there are important items that need adding, I'd love to hear about that.
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"Naked Man Arrested for Concealed Weapon":
Yep, that's exactly where it was. Police comment, "You can't get much more concealed than that." Crescat and Wikipedia by Holbo:
This is beautiful. Be sure and read the updates. And the comments. Related Posts (on one page):
Happiness Is . . .
. . . divided government. I must say that I'm pretty happy about Tuesday's results, because it returns us to the state in which I think we function best: with Congress and the Presidency in the hands of different parties. It's more common than one might suppose; in 34 of the 54 years since Eisenhower was elected for his first term ('52), at least one branch of Congress was in hands different than the executive branch, and for my money the years in which that has not been the case (60-68, 76-80, 93-94, and 2001-06) have not been distinguished by great statesmanship or great policy-making. It's something of a cliche, I know, but it's also true -- when the government's divided, everybody is fighting for the Center, and the Center is the place, in my book, where solutions are most likely to be found to most problems (if they can be found at all). Payments for Organs, Medical Self-Defense, and the Risk of the Rich Buying Up All Available Organs:
I continue the excerpts from my Medical Self-Defense article, by rebutting arguments that banning payment for organs is necessary to avoid very grave harms. In this post, I deal with the arguments that banning payment is needed to keep rich patients from "jumping the queue." I've already discussed the risk of organ robbery; in future posts, I deal with the arguments that banning payment is needed to keep poor providers from being improperly exploited, or to avoid supposedly inherently improper "commodification" of the human body. As before, please recall that the footnotes are available here, so if you wonder where I got some of the data, you might check there first.
All Related Posts (on one page) | Some Related Posts:
Thursday, November 9, 2006Payments for Organs, Medical Self-Defense, and the Risk of Organ Robbery:
I continue the excerpts from my Medical Self-Defense article, by rebutting arguments that banning payment for organs is necessary to avoid very grave harms. In this post, I deal with the risk of organ robbery; in future posts, I deal with arguments that banning payment is needed to keep rich patients from "jumping the queue," to keep poor providers from being improperly exploited, or to avoid supposedly inherently improper "commodification" of the human body. Throughout all this, remember: The constitutional, moral, and policy question isn't just whether some possible harm may flow from payment for organs, but rather whether avoiding the harm is reason enough to interfere with people's right to protect their own lives, and to support a system under which thousands of people die each year -- the best source I could find reported 8000 deaths -- for lack of an available organ.
All Related Posts (on one page) | Some Related Posts:
Medical Self-Defense and Bans on Payment for Organs:
As promised, I'm moving on to what is likely the most controversial part of my Medical Self-Defense article -- that bans on payment for organs violate patients' medical self-defense rights (which I argue are both constitutional rights and moral rights that legislatures ought to respect). Here's the argument that the right is indeed implicated here, and that bans on payment for organs are therefore presumptively unconstitutional, at least unless the bans are the least burdensome means of avoiding very serious harms. In the next few days, I'll respond to some arguments that the bans are indeed necessary to avoid such harms.
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Survey For Current and Former Internet Poker Players:
A student of mine, Ben Maro, is writing a paper on the deterrent effect of the new Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, the recently passed law prohibiting Internet gambling transactions. He has designed a survey to get a sense of whether the Act has actually deterred the playing of one specific type of online gambling, Internet poker. If you play Internet poker, or used to before the new law was passed, and you live in the United States, please consider taking the survey. We realize that the results are going to be highly unscientific, but we figured that even an unscientific survey might be better than none at all.
You can take the survey here. BAMN Files a Lawsuit Against the MCRI
claiming that the anti-preference initiative violates the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment (in part because it bans only certain types of preferences), is preempted by federal civil rights laws (because it prevents universities from using the only effective technique they have at hand to integrate), and violates the First Amendment of public universities as recognized by Grutter "to determine their academic standards and to determine the criteria for admission to the university." The latter argument is especially interesting because if it emerged victorious it would, e.g., implicitly call for the reversal of the Bob Jones University and Grove City College cases, and more generally allow any public or private university to discriminate in any way so long as they could claim they were doing so for "academic" reasons. (Okay, for public universities there might be an argument that the 14th Amendment still prohibits invidious discrimination, but certainly private schools would henceforth have a First Amendment right to discriminate in admissions). Another interesting aspect of the complaint is that all of the defendants opposed the MCRI, making one wonder if the court will allow intervenors who have an incentive to defend the law. A link to the complaint can be found on Bamn's website. Related Posts (on one page):
Enforcing Law Online:
I have just posted a draft of a book review, Enforcing Law Online, forthcoming in the University of Chicago Law Review. It is a short review (17 pages) of the new book by Jack Goldsmith & Tim Wu, Who Controls the Internet? Illusions of a Borderless World.
Here is the introduction: "Who Controls the Internet" is an entertaining and engaging book. Professors Goldsmith and Wu have written a short and accessible work that makes a straightforward and persuasive argument about the enforceability of law over the Internet. The book’s brevity and anecdotal approach means that it overlooks a lot of detail; the dynamics of Internet regulation are more complicated than this short volume suggests. Whether this is a blessing or a curse depends on the reader’s taste. It makes the book a fun read, but it also keeps the authors from grappling fully with the dynamics of the topics they cover. Either way, "Who Controls the Internet" is an important addition to the literature that deserves to be widely read.Comments welcome, as always. Also, I'd be interested in reader feedback on the SSRN "stamp" that SSRN is now requiring on all new papers posted to SSRN. You can see it along the left-hand side of each page. SSRN says that they intend this at least in part as a service to readers, but that they may remove it if it annoys readers instead. I'd be interested to know if readers like the stamp, or would rather have SSRN remove it. Borat--An Israeli Pretending to be a Kazakh:
Having just seen "Borat," I'm afraid it turns out that the Jews have played another hoax on the Kazakh people. The Kazakh documentarian Borat is actually an Israeli! Despite his rugged Kazakh looks and cunning Kazakh accent, when he is not speaking English in the movie, he is actually speaking Hebrew! Those Jews will stop at nothing to undermine the good name of Kazakhstan. In all seriousness, Borat is really speaking Hebrew, usually at least a rough translation of what the English subtitles say. Turns out that Sacha Baron Cohen spent a year in Israel as a young man, according to his Wikipedia biography. Wednesday, November 8, 2006When Oral Argument is A Crime:
Would you like to argue a case at the United States Supreme Court? If you get the chance, you better hope that the Justices ask you lots of questions and keep interrupting you. Why? Well, check out 40 U.S.C. 6134:
It is unlawful to discharge a firearm, firework or explosive, set fire to a combustible, make a harangue or oration, or utter loud, threatening, or abusive language in the Supreme Court Building or grounds.That's right: It's illegal to make an oration in the Supreme Court building! So be careful out there, folks. Democrats Take the Senate:
The Associated Press is declaring Jim Webb the victor in the Virginia Senate race, and with it, control of the United States Senate appears to have shifted to the Democrats. As I understand it, the Chairmanship of the Senate Judiciary Committee will now pass back to Vermont Senator Patrick J. Leahy.
Medical Self-Defense and a Right of the Terminally Ill to Use Experimental Medical Treatments:
So far, the excerpts from my Medical Self-Defense, Prohibited Experimental Therapies, and Payment for Organs article have focused on the established constitutional right to abortion-as-self-defense, and the established common-law, statutory, and possibly constitutional right to lethal self-defense. Now I turn to the places where my medical self-defense arguments would make a difference; I will soon turn to the most controversial item — the impropriety and unconstitutionality of the ban on compensation for organ transplants — but for now I start with a right of the terminally ill to use experimental medical treatments:
I'd love to hear people's thoughts on this. One request, though: I realize — as the last three paragraphs make clear — that there's a hot and eminently legitimate debate about whether courts should recognize unenumerated constitutional rights; and the previous posts in this post chain have drawn many comments focused on that very debate. I'd like to ask that we set aside that general issue for the comments to this post and the coming ones, simply because it has already been dealt with in such detail (and already with some repetition) in the comments. Naturally, the specific issue of whether this unenumerated right should be recognized (among many other issues) remains entirely fair game. All Related Posts (on one page) | Some Related Posts:
Libertarian Party in Montana:
Did anyone else notice that the Libertarian Party in Montana (Stan Jones, who received 3%) provided far more than the margin of victory between Tester and Burns? Assuming that the LP candidate drew more from Burns than Tester, this means that the LP essentially played a kingmaker role in creating a Democratic Senate. As a related matter, I thought that the comments by David Boaz leading up to the election were quite provocative and challenging, especially to the Republicans. I'll be interested to see if the MSM makes anything more of this going forward. MA Gov.-elect Deval Patrick--Enemy of the First Amendment?:
I didn't know that Deval Patrick was running for governor of Massachusetts, or I would have posted this sooner. Patrick makes a brief cameo in my book You Can't Say That!, and this cameo suggests that he has, or at least had, little understanding of, or sympathy for, freedom of speech. The background is that during the Clinton Administration, HUD filed a series of civil rights lawsuits against community groups that opposed the placement of halfway houses in their neighborhoods. The only illegal activities the groups allegedly engaged in were such clearly protected activities as holding meetings, organizing petitions, publishing newsletters and the like. The underlying theory, however, was that, for example, by opposing a rehabilitation facility for drug addicts, the groups were violating the Fair Housing Act by making it more difficult for the handicapped (which by statutory definition includes recovering drug addicts) from getting housing. Following truly awful publicity, HUD backed down, announcing that it would no longer investigate "any complaint . . . that involves public activities directed toward achieving action by a governmental entity or official; and do not involve force, physical harm, or a clear threat of force or physical harm to one or more individuals." More generally, HUD would no longer prosecute behavior protected by the First Amendment. This was not good enough for then-assistant AG Patrick:
Patrick's baseball bat analogy is one of the dumbest, and scariest, interpretations of freedom of speech I've ever seen from a person in a position of federal authority. I hope Patrick's respect for freedom of speech has evolved in the meantime. UPDATE: Of course, it's possible that Patrick didn't actually believe that any court was going to buy his argument, but instead just wanted to keep the litigation going to intimidate the homeowners. Even if the homeowners eventually emerged victorious in litigation, as they did, they still had to face the threat of prosecution and enormous legal fees. Ironically, it was Patrick who was using the metaphorical baseball bat, the threat of (state) violence, to violate the homeowners' rights. Rumsfeld Is Out:
Well, that was fast: Donald Rumsfeld is resigning. I'm most of the way through Bob Woodward's new book State of Denial, and if that book is at all accurate, this is very good news indeed. The nominee to replace Rumsfeld is former CIA chief Robert Gates; Wikipedia's entry about Gates is here.
University of Michigan to Sue to Overturn MCRI Preferences Ban:
The chances that the university would ultimately win such litigation approach zero. Any argument that UM could make that it's unconstitutional to ban affirmative action preferences in higher education (e.g., academic freedom) would also mean that it would be unconstitutional to ban discrimination more generally in higher education, and no court is going to accept such an argument. But with clever forum shopping, the implementation of the MCRI can be delayed. Thanks to reader Hans Bader for the link. UPDATE: President Coleman, in the midst of lengthy remarks expressing her dedication to "diversity," added, "Of course the University of Michigan will comply with the laws of the state." Her devotion to a cause she believes just is admirable, but I think it would have been appropriate for her to recognize, even if briefly, that out of a student body of 40,000, and an alumni body of hundred thousands, there are many thousands of people of good will who disagree. The actual remarks, however, suggest that the only good member of the Michigan community is someone who supports "diversity" policies. Related Posts (on one page):
"Brooklyn-Style" Pizza:
The N.Y. Times takes a look at Domino's new "Brooklyn-style" pizza, which not surprisingly only faintly resembles actual Brooklyn pizza. One thing the article doesn't mention, and which, as a native of Queens (right on the Brooklyn border) astounds me, is the proliferation of Domino's and (worse yet)Pizza Hut outlets throughout New York City, including Brooklyn. Okay, I'm a pizza snob. But really, in New York (outside, perhaps, Manhattan, where the pizza situation has become dire) you are rarely more than a few blocks away from at least decent New York pizza. And decent New York pizza is, for example, better than anything I'm able to find in the entire D.C. metropolitan area. Why would anyone in Brooklyn, ever order the dreck they sell at Domino's? UPDATE: IMHO, the best pizza in Brooklyn, in order, is Di Faro's (Midwood), Tottonno's (Coney Island) and Grimaldi's (DUMBO). I like My Little Pizzeria in Brooklyn Heights/Downtown Brooklyn for a quick slice, and, if you find yourself in Queens, you can't go wrong with the unheralded but excellent Carlo's in Middle Village. Rosa's, a few blocks down, is also quite good. I used to like Gino's in Howard Beach, but had mediocre pizza there recently; a good friend is highly partial to the pizza at New Park Pizza, which unfortunately is best known for a horrible racist incident in the 1980s that tangentially involved the pizzeria. Congratulations
to my Democratic friends on winning the House and, as seems likely, the Senate, and best wishes to the Democratic leadership in their legislative tasks. If they embarrass themselves like the Republicans often have in the past years, the tide may easily turn against them; but if they succeed, then voters in 2008 will quite properly reward them. Same-sex marriage and the election (Part 2):
Much more important to the politics of gay marriage than the national election results are the results in (1) popular votes on state constitutional gay-marriage bans and (2) the results in state legislative races. Both suggest that we may be headed for more state legislative action toward the recognition of same-sex relationships in the form of civil unions and domestic partnerships (less so, for now, in the form of full marriage). This post will address the first development. State constitutional gay-marriage bans There are two huge stories in the votes on gay-marriage bans around the country. First, for the first time ever a gay-marriage ban has been rejected by the voters of a state, Arizona. It's not the same as an endorsement of gay marriage, but it's an unprecedented and potentially significant defeat for opponents of gay marriage. Still, I am at a loss to explain the precise reason for the result in Arizona. It could have been driven by demographics, individual state issues, differences in the pro- and anti-amendment campaigns, or the generally more libertarian political climate in the state. (By the way, I think this election could fairly be described overall as a libertarian rebellion.) Second, average support for the bans in the seven states where they passed was down dramatically from previous elections. Here are the latest numbers on the proposed state constitutional amendments: Arizona: Defeated 51%-49% Colorado: Passed 56%-44% Idaho: Passed 65%-35% South Carolina: Passed 84%-16% South Dakota: Passed 52%-48% Tennessee: Passed 84%-16% Virginia: 58%-42% Wisconsin: 59%-41% See here for state-by-state marriage amendment votes in this and past elections. There are some remarkable things about these numbers. In the seven states where the amendments passed, average support was down to about 61%. That’s about 8-10% less than average support for these amendments in past elections. Of the eight states, support for the bans was held under 60% in five; that had previously happened in only one state out of twenty. Prior to this election, the low-water mark for a ban was 56% (in Oregon in 2004). Three states (Arizona, Colorado, and South Dakota) were at or under that mark this year. What produced these surprisingly good results for gay-marriage supporters? Several things may be happening: (1) Voters are getting habituated to the idea of gay marriage, even if they don’t quite accept it, and so are less likely to vote to ban it (and similar unions). (2) Voters are starting to catch on that these proposed amendments are about much more than gay marriage. They ban civil unions (which pluralities now favor), domestic partnerships, and potentially much, much more. And they do not simply stop judges from imposing gay marriage; they apply even to state legislative action. (3) Individual state races and issues skewed the results. South Dakota, where support for the amendment was an astonishingly low 52%, is the most obvious example. There, the result was probably affected by the presence of a sweeping anti-abortion ballot measure, which brought out lots of pro-choice and anti-anti-abortion voters. (4) It was a very bad night for Republicans for reasons unrelated to gay marriage (the Iraq war, perceived corruption), which produced a drag on support for the amendments. In almost every state (except Arizona) the marriage bans did better than most Republicans in state-wide races. Virginia is the clearest example of this, where the amendment passed with 59% support yet amendment supporter Sen. George Allen got just 49%. Gay-marriage bans can’t save Republicans when the tide is this overwhelming. Gay-marriage supporters will emphasize the first two factors; opponents will emphasize the second two. I do think it’s fair to say that gay-marriage bans are starting to fizzle as a potent political weapon. Just as gay-marriage litigants are running out of friendly state judiciaries, gay-marriage opponents are starting to run out of very friendly state electorates (though I do think we’ll end up with about 32-35 states with amendments when all is said and done). The declining potency of this issue will likely have two effects. First, it will probably embolden more state legislators to reject state amendment proposals, preventing them from reaching the ballots in states where legislatures must approve them. Second, the erosion of public support for marriage bans also suggests, I think, that both sides are going to have to start focusing more on legislation in the states. Neither will be able to deploy the trump card of judicial supremacy, on the one hand, or constitutional amendment, on the other. That’s a healthy development since it means we'll have more actual legislative debate and compromise on the issue, outside of the cool confines of judicial chambers and the hothouse of popular referenda. It also means incremental change will be permitted, where judicial action and constitutional amendment on this issue entail a priori, all-or-nothing policymaking. On that score, this election produced signs that the tide is turning in the legislative arena toward more recognition of gay relationships. That’s the subject of the next post. Related Posts (on one page):
In anti-Republican deluge, Second Amendment just gets a little damp:
In an article this morning for National Review Online, I analyze how the Second Amendment fared in last night's election. Results: Almost no net change in Senate seats (-1) or governorships (-1.5). In the House, a loss of 14 seats — less than half the size of the 32-seat Republican loss. The incoming freshman classes in the U.S. House and Senate include a plentiful supply of pro-gun Democrats, a very important positive long-term trend. "the duty of the losing party":
There are better and worse ways to lose elections. This statement by Mike Pence (via Glenn & the Corner) seems to be among the better.
WASHINGTON, DC - U.S. Congressman Mike Pence released the following statement today on the GOP's midterm election loss: Election day 2006 will be remembered as a turning point in American political history. Twenty-five years after the Reagan Administration came to Washington with a conservative agenda of limited government, the American people chose a different course. Ten states pass anti-Kelo referendum initiatives:
During this fall's elections, voters in twelve states considered anti-Kelo referendum initiatives that sought to ban or curtail the condemnation of private property in order to promote "economic development." Ten of the twelve passed, all by lopsided margins ranging from 55% to 86% of the vote. For a complete list, see here. The only two anti-Kelo initiatives that failed were proposals in California and Idaho that were tied to complex and highly controversial "regulatory takings" proposals which would have required the government to compensate landowners whenever the value of their property is reduced by various types of government regulations; a stand-alone regulatory takings initiative was also defeated in the state of Washington. Tying anti-Kelo referenda to the much less popular regulatory takings referenda has turned out to be a serious political mistake. More importantly, of the ten anti-Kelo initiatives that passed, at least six (Arizona, Florida, Louisiana, Nevada, North Dakota, and Oregon) and possibly seven (counting Michigan) are well enough worded to provide strong protection to property owners that would succeed in banning all or most economic development takings in those states. This is a much better batting average than that of post-Kelo reforms enacted by state legislatures, most of which tend to provide little or no protection for property owners (see, e.g., my analysis here, here, and here, and Tim Sandefur's excellent article on the subject). Why are the anti-Kelo referendum initiatives so much more effective than most of their legislative cousins? I suspect because the former are usually drafted by property rights activists rather than by state legislators. As I discuss in more detail in the posts linked above, politicians often have incentives to give voters the impression that they are "reforming" eminent domain without actually doing so. Activist groups have few if any such incentives and the reforms they draft are therefore likely to have fewer loopholes and be more effective in eliminating economic development takings. If time permits, I hope to produce a more detailed summary of the state of post-Kelo reform soon. The Fall of Milberg Weiss:
The Nov. 3 Fortune has a gripping account of the fall of leading plaintiffs' class action firm Milberg Weiss. My Yale classmate and current colleague (as a visiting professor) Tony Sebok comments at Findlaw. Same-sex marriage and the election (Part 1):
On the eve of the election, anti-gay-marriage commentator Stanley Kurtz assessed the likely impact of the results on the future of same-sex marriage politics. First, he suggested, there were important immediate implications for New Jersey, where the state supreme court had just ordered the legislature to grant equal rights to gay families.
Menendez won, 53%-45%. That's double the margin that Kurtz predicted would "free New Jersey state legislators to risk approving full-fledged same-sex marriage" when they take up the issue in the next six months. Second, he suggested a possible national impact:
The Democrats took the House. The Senate is up for grabs, but the Democrats have a slight edge. There were even bigger and more direct messages about the politics of gay marriage in this election. I'll have more to say about that soon. Related Posts (on one page):
Michigan Civil Rights Initiative Passes Easily:
The Michigan Civil Right Initiative, banning race and sex preferences in higher education and government contracting, passed easily, with 58% of the vote:
One thing obviously missing from President Coleman's statement is a commitment to obey the law. Hopefully, she will make it clear that future diversity efforts will be pursued in accordance with Michigan law. To his credit, Dean Evan Caminker of the law school made it clear many months ago that the law school intends to obey the law:
I tend to think that measures like the MCRI are too heavy-handed, but I have no doubt that state officials are under an obligation to abide by them. Related Posts (on one page):
Is the Senate within the Margin of Litigation?
Rick Hasen explores this question on the Election Law blog. Evolution Wins in Ohio:
How to teach evolution and whether to teach "Intelligent Design" were big issues in the race between incumbent Deborah Owens Fink and challenger Tom Sawyer for the 7th District seat on the Ohio Board of Education. Fink argued there was no scientific consensus in support of the theory of evolution, and thought state education standards should reflect that, if not also call for the mention of non-scientific alternatives. Sawyer was supported by a large group of scientists, including many of my colleagues at Case, who sought to ensure that Ohio science education standards would be science based.
In the end, however, Sawyer won handily. This was not an isolated event, as it appears that the pro-science/pro-evolution candidates won across the board. Related Posts (on one page):
Ohio Voters Choose Dem Pols, GOP Judges:
The GOP has dominated Ohio politics for years. Going into last night, there were no statewide elected Democrats other than one member of the state Supreme Court (for which party affiliation is not noted on the ballot). No longer. The Democrats won all but one of the non-judicial statewide races. Given that most of these races were not particularly close, it seems clear that voters were sick of the corruption, incompetence, and unprincipled governance of the Ohio GOP during the Taft years. Interestingly enough, Republicans won both state Supreme Court races, creating an all-Republican Court. One candidate, Terrence O'Donnell, was running for reelection. The other, Robert Cupp, won an open seat. The Court's lone Democrat, Justice Resnick, had not sought reelection, largely due to a DUI scandal. While the court will continue to be divided along ideological lines on many issues, such as school funding and tort reform, many cases that would have been 4-3 are now likely to be decided 5-2. What explains the GOP success in judicial races? Is it due to judicial candidates lack of party identification on the ballot? Or is it something else peculiar about judicial races, such as the lack of issues (or, perhaps, lack of media attention)? Or do Ohio voters intuitively prefer more conservative jurists even as they give more liberal politicians a try? I am not sure, but it is an interesting aspect of last night's outcomes. Executive Power and the Election of 2006:
With the Democratic takeover of the House, and the continuing possibility of a Democratic takeover of the Senate, we're obviously going to see a lot more friction between Congress and the President in the next two years. Am I right in thinking that this is likely to lead to a series of new judicial precedents on the scope of executive power?
The GOP Congress was eager to get along with the President, but the Democratic House (and possibly Senate) obviously won't be. For example, I assume the House will have lots of hearings and demand lots of documents from the Executive; when this happens, we can be pretty confident that the Executive will assert broad claims of executive privilege. These claims presumably will be resolved by the courts, and neither side is likely to back down. Both will want to litigate the issue to the fullest. I would guess, on the whole, that this isn't good news for proponents of strong executive power. I think it's fair to say that the Executive Branch's credibility on executive power claims is relatively low these days among the folks with Article III appointments. For better or worse, this isn't the most friendly judicial environment in which to push a strong Article II. Of course, a single retirement might alter the balance at the Supreme Court; the Hamdan Five might become four. However, the confirmation process to fill an open seat would need to go through the new Senate first. Where Was Osama?:
Is anyone else surprised that there was no pre-election message from Osama bin Laden this time around? I don't know if it means anything, but it seems worth noting.
Missouri Polls Closed for 5 Hours, Still not one vote from Kansas City.--
The Missouri polls have now been closed for 5 hours. There are still no votes from Kansas City. Overall, nearly 2/3rds of the Missouri precincts are reporting. Democracy at work! Tuesday, November 7, 2006Webb leads in VA counties with 3 or more precincts still out.
The votes are coming in very slowly now. One county in VA (Craig County) has no reported votes yet (11 precincts). But Webb leads in all other VA counties with 3 or more precincts still out. I don't know enough about Virginia (I lived there only 2 years) to know whether this is just a coincidence, but it is quite striking. From looking at the straggler counties, I think that by noon on Wednesday, Webb will have a small lead. Expect a recount, no matter who wins. In Missouri, there is still not a single vote out of Kansas City. Amazing! The Virginia Race Continues to be close.
2:25am: With more precincts in, Webb now leads by 7,800 votes. My crude model now predicts an eventual 8,200 Webb lead, which if the last four hours is any indication, is a significant under-estimate. 1:52am: With 99.6% of the precincts in, the Webb lead is growing even faster than my crude model is predicting. Webb's lead is now 4,700 votes, but my model (see below) is now predicting an eventual 5,700 vote margin for Webb. It will probably be nontrivially more. 1:45am: With 99.47% of the precincts in, the very rough estimate (see below) is that Webb's lead of about 1500 will grow to about 3400. 1:14am: With 99.26% of the votes in, Webb leads by less than 2,000 votes. If missing precincts exactly match reporting precincts, then the Webb lead should eventually grow to a rough estimate of 3,850 votes. That should be enough to withstand a recount. It is interesting how such a simple model could correctly predict that a 13,000 vote Allen lead with over 95% of the vote would eventually lead to a small Webb lead when nearly all the votes came in. It appears that the precincts that were being withheld were even more likely to go toward the county's majority than the earlier reporting precincts. 12:25: Both MSNBC and FOX are showing that Webb is leading by 2,400 votes with 100% of the precincts reporting. 12:14am: The four localities with more than 2 precincts outstanding are ALL in localities that are voting Democratic: Fairfax county, Loudoun county, Prince William county, and Richmond City. When 100% of precincts are in, it should be much closer or Webb should take the lead. 11:45pm: Even though Allen still leads by a few thousand votes with 97.7% of the vote in, the trend in Webb's direction continues. If the missing precincts match the reported precincts in each VA county, Webb would win by 399 votes. 11:27pm: Welcome Instapundit readers. You will note that I am not predicting that Webb will win by 550 votes. Obviously, the race is too close to call. What I have been doing is computing the final results IF the missing precincts vote exactly like the nonmissing precincts in the rest of that county. 10:54pm: With 95.58% of the vote in, Allen leads by 13,000 votes. If every missing precinct is exactly like the other precincts in that county, then my computations now predict a Webb victory of 550 votes. A recount is almost certain. 10:40pm: I ran the estimates (using the assumptions earlier in this post) with almost 94% of the vote in and came up with an Allen lead of 136 votes. Five of the last 6 Arlington precincts just came in (I haven't analyzed them yet). The last 3 Fairfax precincts have been still out, with nothing coming from that county in well over an hour. 10:30pm: With 93.21% in, Allen leads by 18,000 votes (0.86%). 10:20pm: Most of the Arlington County votes came in about an hour ago (at about 9:17), but not a single Arlington precinct has come in for the last hour. From my experience in watching Chicago election returns, very long gaps in reporting often lead to huge surges for the more popular candidate in that county. I have been running county by county numbers in Virginia, on the assumption that the precincts not reporting are of the same size and vote the same way as the rest of that county's precincts vote. When about 85% of the votes were in, this method projected a Webb win by a few hundred votes, while with about 90% of the votes in, this method projects an Allen win by a few hundred votes. Unfortunately, that means that the election may be close enough that voting irregularities or litigation might determine the outcome. Allen up slightly with over 70% of the votes counted.--
9:10pm: George Allen is up by 2.06% with 73.8% of the votes counted. The main worry for the Allen camp is probably that Democratic stronghold Arlington County has been among the counties that have been slow in turning in results. 9:22pm: Well, most of the rest of Arlington county just came in. With 78.9% of the precincts in, Allen's lead is now 0.64%. 9:50pm: With 86.7% of the vote in, Allen now leads by 1,333 votes, 0.06%. In Ohio and Missouri, No last minute shift to Republicans in late exit polls.--
In Ohio and Missouri, unlike Virginia, there have been no last minute shifts toward the Republicans in late exit polls v. early exit polls. The mid-afternoon exit polls showed Democrats leading 50-48 in Missouri and 57-43 in Ohio. My recomputations from CNN's page show the final exit polls (computed from the age and gender breakdowns) at 41.7%-42.0% for DeWine v. 58.0-58.3% for Brown. In Ohio, the early difference of 14% widened to 16%. In Missouri, the final exit polls were 48.0-48.2% for Talent and 50.0-50.2% for McCaskill, unchanged from the early exit polls. On the other hand, the percentage of women polled was fairly high (54%). Election Blogging at Point of Law:
The Point of Law blog (to which I occasionally contribute) has been having an election roundtable discussion, focusing on how the election will effect legal reform. Virginia Senate Race Now Closer Than Earlier Estimates.--
On the CNN webpage, they break down the Webb-Allen race Exit Results by age and gender. With some simple algebra, one can compute the exit totals at 47.9% for Allen and 51.1% for Webb from the gender splits and 48.2% to 51.0% from the age splits. Remember that the mid-afternoon exit poll had Webb ahead of Allen by 5%. Also, remember that the exit poll results are updated by later exit polls and actual precinct results when these become available. If the Virginia exit polls moved from a 5% Democratic advantage to a 3% advantage in just a few hours, that suggests that the later exit polling might be turning toward the Republicans. Late Deciders Breaking Democratic.--
US News repeating FOX reports:
Second Amendment Election live-blog:
NRO: Democrats Leading in Exit Polls for Senate.--
CNN just reported some more exit poll results that sounded very bad for Republicans. The Corner is passing on what they've heard are more specific Exit Poll Results. Remember, after the problems in 2002 and 2004, these should be taken with some skepticism.
If there is a 2-4% bias toward Democrats in these polls, then it would suggest that the crucial race may be Missouri, followed by Virginia. ABC Says that Exit Polls are Bad for Bush.
ABC's take on the Exit Polls:
FOX is hinting at a Blowout in the House.--
FOX is hinting at a big blowout of 30 seats or more moving to the Democrats in the House. CNN: Exit polls show strong evidence of "Broken Government."
CNN: Hint, Hint: CNN said that the exit polls show strong evidence of "Broken Government." One CNN reporter seemed giddy over the Democrats' chances of taking the House. She reported that Nancy Pelosi and her staff are contemplating whether to move into new digs. CNN Blogging Conference.--
CNN just teased their blogger conference and focused the camera on Ann Althouse as they went to commercial. Uh-oh:
NPR has been running a series on "some of the language that's become part of our everyday vocabulary since September 11, terms such as war on terror and Islamic Fascism." The first item was on "the various meanings of the word jihad." So this is a whole story on language, and in particular on one word, "jihad." One sentence, though, struck me:
It turns out, though, that the word "jihad" appears even in the First Edition of the Oxford English Dictionary; the volume containing the word "jihad" was published in 1901. What's more, the First Edition gives both the literal meaning, "A religious war of Muslims against unbelievers in Islam, inculcated as a duty by the Koran and traditions," with attestations from 1869, 1875, and 1880, and a figurative meaning, "A war or crusade for or against some doctrine, opinion, or principle; war to the death," with attestations from 1880 and 1886. Now mistakes happen, and this one isn't terribly material to the story's broader points. I strongly suspect that the term jihad has indeed become more common over the last decade. But the mistake reminded me in mind of a claim that I read in Far from the Madding Gerund, the wonderful collection of Language Log blog posts: Media stories routinely make elementary mistakes about language matters, mistakes that could easily have been remedied with just a quick dictionary check. (Here's one post in which the Language Loggers make this point, though they've also provided many other examples.) Of course media mistakes happen in lots of other contexts, and the Language Log people find them especially often as to linguistics for obvious reasons. But it is striking that the errors are routinely made even when adequate checking is so straightforward. CNN hinting that the exit polls favor Democrats.--
As I interpret what CNN is saying, it appears that CNN is hinting that the exit polls just released to the networks favor the Democrats. Because the exit polls were so inaccurate the last time around, I think that people will rightly take them with more than a grain of salt. 5:25pm: Ken Mehlman (R) on FOX says that he has not heard any leaks on the exit polls, but that one of the other networks has been hinting at results. Mehlman says that the Republican voter turnout effort is going slightly better for them than in 2004. 5:30pm: CNN just said that one exit poll question regarding general disapproval of Congress boded ill for the Republicans' retaining control of the House. I considered that a strong hint that the exit polling favored the Democrats taking control of the House. Amicus Brief in Watters v. Wachovia:
Later this month, the Supreme Court will hear arguments in Watters v. Wachovia Bank, which deals with the question of the propriety of the preemption by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency of so-called "anti-predatory lending laws" enacted in various states, and in this situation, Michigan. I was pleased to be invited to join with several distinguished economists and law professors in an amicus brief filed last week endorsing the policy benefits of the dual banking system and the robust competition it brings about for the benefit of consumers. For those who are interested, the press release describing the argument of the brief is available here and the brief in pdf format is available here. The brief focuses on the policy aspects of the case, and especially the unintended consequences that generally accompany consumer lending regulation, rather than precise questions of administrative law. Among other sources, the brief relies on an article I published a few years ago, "The Economics of Credit Cards" (which is available here). In part, the brief responds to an amicus brief submitted in the case by AARP, other interest groups, and several law professors. As the brief notes, from a policy perspective it is important that the Supreme Court uphold the OCC's authority here and preserve the integrity of the dual banking system. Overbroad or misguided consumer lending regulations can have extremely negative effects on consumer choice and consumer protection. The most notable example of the benefits of the dual banking system and the preemption of state consumer lending laws is the Supreme Court's opinion in Marquette National Bank v. First Omaha Serv. Corp. in 1978. That case permitted "exportation" of interest rates on credit cards, thereby essentially negating archaic usury regulations on credit cards. The effect was to unleash an era of extraordinary competition and pro-consumer financial innovation. Marquette spurred competition and innovation, leading to vast improvements in payment card services for consumers along with the elimination of annual fees on cards, lower interest rates, and the beneficial uncoupling of retail and credit transactions, thereby permitting the rise of the Internet and small businesses. Misguided regulation of mortgage lending can be especially expensive and burdensome to consumers, and especially lower-income and younger borrowers, because of the inability to meaningfully shop for better terms among jurisdictions because of the nature of the loan itself. I discuss the Marquette effect extensively in my article. The brief was filed by the Competitive Enterprise Institute on behalf of G. Marcus Cole of Stanford Law School, Christopher DeMuth and Peter J. Wallison of the American Enterprise Institute, Richard Epstein of the University of Chicago, Robert E. Litan of the Brookings Institution, Michael E. Staten of George Washington University, and Todd Zywicki of George Mason University. How Exit Polling Works in 2006 at Pollster.com.--
There is a great description of exit polling at Pollster.com: Expect heavy hinting by the networks after 5pm ET today. Very Funny:
Pre-school political advertising. Persuaded me! The Politics of Ignorance:
I have an election day op ed on political ignorance in The Jurist. A brief excerpt:
Also check out this excellent piece on political ignorance by George Mason economics professor Bryan Caplan. The Phanerozoic Debate:
Today's NYT has a very informative and balanced story on the scientific debate over the relationship between carbon dioxide levels and global termperatures during the Phanerozoic era (roughly 550 million years ago to the present). One thing William Broad does particularly well in the story (and he was given ample space by his editors in which to do this) is to identify precisely where paleoclimatologists and geologists agree and disagree — something much popular reporting on climate science fails to do. It also points out the potential relevance of this dispute for contemporary climate change policy discussions. Here is a taste:
The story also notes that as paleoclimatic research becomes more relevant to policy debates, politics rears its ugly head.
Those interested in climate policy should read the whole thing. The Constitutional Status of Lethal Self-Defense:
Do we have a constitutional right to use deadly force in defense of life (or defense against rape, kidnapping, serious bodily injury, and perhaps more)? Oddly enough, the matter hasn't been settled, and has been little studied by scholars. Fordham lawprof Nicholas Johnson has a forthcoming article on the subject, but unfortunately I couldn't find a draft of it on the Web; George Mason lawprof Nelson Lund has a response. There's a smattering of other material on it, but quite little. Here's my short section on the subject; for footnotes, see here:
All Related Posts (on one page) | Some Related Posts:
Lethal Self-Defense, Medical Self-Defense, and Imminence:
More from my Medical Self-Defense paper; see the original for footnotes, should you want it. Thanks also for your comments: Among other things, they've persuaded me that I need to explain in more detail why I use the self-defense defense as an analogy instead of the necessity defense -- I think I have a good justification for it, but it sounds like I'll need to make it explicitly, and I'll do that on-blog and likely in the article as well. In the meantime, a brief discussion of imminence, to be followed shortly by a discussion of the constitutional law and self-defense:
All Related Posts (on one page) | Some Related Posts:
Democrats Favored in Betting on Individual Senate Races, But Not for Taking the Senate.--
Late Monday Night, Nov. 6 According to the betting at Iowa Electronic Markets, the Republicans have about a 70% chance of retaining the Senate. According to the betting at Tradesports, the Republicans have a 66-69% chance of retaining the Senate, which is down from a few days ago. Yet the Democrats are ahead in all of Tradesports’ closest Senate races (probabilities are approximate, within the bid/ask spreads): Implicit Probability of Democratic Victory in contested Senate Races: VA: 57% MO: 60% RI: 66% MD: 73% MT: 77% The closest race in which Republicans are leading is TN: 15% probability of Democratic victory. I look at such things because I'm terrible at predicting elections myself. If I were inclined to bet on this election, I would take the 7 to 3 odds and bet on a Democratic takeover of the Senate, since I think that the chance of the Democrats taking the Senate is closer to 50/50, even though the Iowa Markets are almost always correct. I hope Nancy Pelosi's check is in the mail:
This post details some of the payments various bloggers are getting from political campaigns this fall. Other bloggers, including the famous Daily Kos were taking money from politicians as far back as the 2004 campaign. Sadly, Nancy Pelosi has not yet paid me for my rousing endorsement of her bid to become Speaker of the House. Without the critical support of the VC vote, she would not be poised to take over Dennis Hastert's job right now. So I just want to say that it's not too late for the soon-to-be Speaker of the House to send some well-earned dough my way. More seriously, I'm not convinced that taking money from politicians is the right way to go for bloggers. At the very least, all such payments should be prominently disclosed either on the title page of the blog or as part of any posts that comment on the campaign. If Nancy Pelosi does send me some money, you can be sure I'll let you know! UPDATE: It seems to me that many of the commenters are reading a lot more into this post than is actually there. I did not say that all (or even most) of the bloggers on the list I linked to had failed to disclose. Nor did I claim that disclosure is required even years after the fact. I do believe that disclosure is required if you 1) take money from a campaign, and 2) blog about that race while it is still going on. Other situations are in more of a gray area and I'm not interested enough in this issue to do a detailed post on which of them require disclosure and which don't. Finally, it should be obvious that I did not say that this problem is solely confined to liberal bloggers. UPDATE #2: For those interested in this subject, more details on the employment of both liberal and conservative bloggers by campaigns and interest groups are available in these two National Journal articles, here and here. Federalism and the "Banishment" of Criminals:
GMU Economist Alex Tabarrok writes:
As readers of this blog know, I am generally very supportive of federalism and decentralization. In this case, however, there is a strong argument for federal government intervention to prevent banishment, just as in cases where state governments dump pollution onto the land or waterways of neighboring states. By "banishing" criminals, state governments save themselves the cost of imprisoning them and also ensure that the cost of any future crimes these individuals commit (as well as the cost of punishing any such future crimes) will fall on other states. Indeed, banishment may actually reduce state government incentives to combat crime, because some of the costs of crime can be exported to their neighbors by banishing the criminals. Some of Alex's commenters argue that banishment should be retained because it is a relatively cheap and convenient way of punishing some types of criminals. This may be true, to some extent. But there are many other forms of punishment that cost much less than prison, yet do not have the perverse incentives created by banishment. Fines and community service are just two of many examples. UPDATE: This post by Corey Yung of the Sex Crimes Blog provides evidence that interstate banishment may not be as common as Alex suggests. Monday, November 6, 2006More on the Penn Halloween Controversy:
Saad Saadi, who has become notorious for dressing up as a suicide bomber for a Halloween Party at the university president's house, has issued the following statement:
Related Posts (on one page):
The Political Weakness of the Poor - An Argument for Limiting Government Power:
One of the strongest traditional arguments for expanding government power in a democracy is that doing so can improve the lot of the poor by enabling them to use their voting power to promote redistributive policies. Yet numerous recent studies (primarily by left of center scholars) show that, in fact, the poor have very little influence over public policy. Recent empirical studies by political scientists Martin Gilens and Larry Bartels actually conclude that the poorest 20-30% of Americans have almost no political influence at all. In his 2003 book, The State of Democratic Theory (which I reviewed here), prominent liberal political theorist Ian Shapiro summarized the evidence that democratic governments generally achieve little in the way of net redistribution to the poor. Indeed, the biggest spending programs in most advanced democracies (notably old-age pensions and farm subsidies) tend to benefit wealthy and upper middle class interests, partly at the expense of the poor. The latter pay for Social Security through regressive payroll taxes, don't collect as much Social Security as the more affluent because they die much younger, and also suffer disproportionately from the increase in food prices caused by farm subsidies that promote cartels and restrict production below free market levels. The relative political weakness of the poor is not surprising. Studies have long demonstrated that the poor are less likely to vote than the rich, less likely to participate in politics in other ways, have lower political knowledge, and of course make fewer and small campaign contributions. Shapiro, and to a much lesser extent Gilens and Bartels, argue that the political weakness of the poor should be overcome by limiting the power of the rich through "campaign finance reform." I am skeptical. Any reform measures must be enacted by incumbent legislators. Yet what incentives do such legislators have to enact reforms that might imperil their own reelection by empowering groups that contributed little or nothing to their initial election? In fact, as John Samples shows in this excellent new book, real-world campaign finance measures mostly strengthen incumbents and powerful interest groups rather than the poor. In my view, the political weakness of the poor is an argument not for campaign finance reform, but for reducing the role of government in society. If big government is not a good way to redistribute wealth to the poor and instead tends to transfer wealth to wealthy and middle class interest groups (sometimes at the expense of the poor), that undercuts one of the main arguments for the the massive modern state. Obviously, the more affluent members of society also have superior buying power in the free market. However, the difference is much smaller than in the political arena. While each individual poor person has relatively little purchasing power in the market, collectivey they have a great deal. Many of the world's most successful businesses (notably Wal Mart) have made enormous profits precisely by finding ways to sell cheap, yet reasonable quality, products to the poor. In the political arena, by contrast, politicians can either ignore the wishes of the poor entirely (as Gilens and Bartels claim they usually do), or exploit their severe political ignorance by enacting symbolic "feel good" policies that do little or nothing to actually benefit poor people, and in some cases even harm them. I do not claim that this consideration by itself justifies libertarianism, nor am I categorically opposed to all government redistribution to the poor. Indeed, I think that some redistributive programs for the poor are both justifiable and necessary. If it were up to me, I would prefer a constitution that forbids all or most redistribution to the wealthy and middle class, while permitting redistribution to those below the poverty line. At the same time, however, the political weakness of the poor is a strong argument against claims that big government is justified by the need to fight poverty and empower the disadvantaged. Quite the opposite may well occur in cases where expanded government power means transferring authority to an entity over which the poor have almost no influence. Justice Stevens on Justice Rutledge:
Justice John Paul Stevens clerked for Justice Wiley Rutledge in 1946-47, and about a decade later he wrote an essay about Justice Rutledge as a chapter in a book, "Mr. Justice," edited by Allison Dunham & Philip Kurland. A copy of the 25-page essay has been posted online, and you can read it here.
Nem mikh mit tsu der ball game:
In Flood v. Kuhn (1972), where the Supreme Court reaffirmed that baseball wasn't subject to antitrust law, Blackmun wrote:
Wowsers. Roger Ian Abrams of Northeastern Law School reveals the origin of the list in his article Blackmun's List. Post-Election Litigation?:
Over at Election Law, Rick Hasen has an interesting post on the prospects for post-election litigation following Tuesday's voting.
What's The Present Value of Future Freedom?:
Over at Decision of the Day, Bob is blogging about a very interesting new criminal law decision by Judge Frank Easterbrook.
Live-blogging the Election:
Tuesday evening, I will be live-blogging the election returns, with a focus on the implications of the results for Second Amendment rights. As I detailed last week in National Review Online, the Senate results look likely to be no more than +1 or -1 for Second Amendment rights. In the House, losses are certain, but may be fairly small. The net House loss on Second Amendment issues might be approximately 1/2 of the net Republican losses -- but a lot will depend on where the Republican losses occur. For example, if Democratic challengers win all six key House races in Connecticut and Indiana, the anti-gun lobby gains only a single seat. In contrast, all four of the vulnerable Republican seats in eastern Pennsylvania, and three of the four vulnerable Republican seats in New York State, would result in gains for the gun control lobby. Voting, Pleasure, and the Brain:
In response to Jim's argument that people vote because they find it pleasurable, my co-blogger Ilya writes:
I am skeptical about Jim's suggestion that the benefit voters get from casting a ballot is like " like going to a movie or a football game." Movies and football games are entertaining and fun (at least to fans). Voting is not. Very few people regularly choose to stand in line or fill out forms as a leisure activity.I wonder if the insights from Daniel Gilbert's terrific book, Stumbling on Happiness, might be helpful here. Gilbert, a psychology professor at Harvard, points out that our brains measure happiness differently when dealing with events that are far away in time as compared to events that are near in time. When an event is far away, we tend to ignore the practical consequences of it and instead latch on to a very incomplete vision of what the event may be like. So if a co-worker says, "do you want to go to Vegas with me 6 months from now?," you might be happy to accept because the abstract mental image of going to Vegas seems great. It's not until the trip is around the corner that you realize that the trip will be expensive, you have other things to do, you don't necessarily want to spend time with your co-worker, and the like. Applying this idea to voting, it suggests to me that Jim may be right about why people vote even if Ilya is right that people don't like to wait in line and fill out forms. When people think about voting in the abstract, they focus on the rush of it; the feeling of participating, of taking responsibility, and the excitement of not knowing who is going to win. Sure, they don't like to wait in line and fill out forms. But when they decide to vote they aren't thinking about that, just like they aren't thinking about what a pain it is to go to Vegas when the trip is six months away. And because voting is a repeated activity, the far-away vision tends to dominate the near-term vision. Looking back on it, people are glad that they voted in past elections because they remember the rush and the feeling of responsibility; the length of the line and the time filling out forms is quickly forgotten. Obviously this doesn't explain all of why people vote (or don't), but I think it suggests that the question isn't answered simply by a measure of objective costs and benefits; how the brain imagines future events seems to play an important role. Lethal Self-Defense and What It Tells Us About Medical Self-Defense:
I build my Medical Self-Defense argument partly on the right to abortion-as-self-defense, but partly on the analogy to lethal self-defense.
Later today or tomorrow -- a brief discussion of the "imminence" limitation on lethal self-defense, and then a discussion of whether lethal self-defense is a constitutional right or only a broadly recognized common-law and statutory right. All Related Posts (on one page) | Some Related Posts:
Phillie Phanatic At the Supreme Court
Via Howard we learn that if the Supreme Court needs the Phillie Phanatic, Justice Breyer's chambers does the calling — and yes, the Phanatic will come:
The Phillie Phanatic paid a visit to Phillies fanatic Samuel Alito during a recent Supreme Court party for its new justice.Of course, the warm reception is what you would expect given what it takes to become a Supreme Court Justice. Civic duty and "pleasure" as explanations for voting:
Both Jim Lindgren and many commenters on our earlier posts on voting suggest that the real explanation for why people vote is that they they feel they have a duty to do so. This is the standard explanation for voting in the academic literature and it makes intuitive sense. If you ask people why they voted, most will indeed probably say that it was because they had a civic duty to do so. However, the question remains, why would people think they have a duty to do something that makes no difference? We don't normally believe in a duty to do futile acts. The reason why people feel they have a duty to vote is because they tend to believe that voting makes a "difference," even if a very small one. If they thought otherwise, very few would still believe they had a duty to vote. To be sure, an alternative explanation is that they think they have a duty to vote because they have been indoctrinated into believing this by the government, particularly in the public schools. While that may be true to some extent, mass voting long predates large-scale indoctrination of this kind, and indeed long predates the existence of public schools (which were not established in most of the United States until the mid to late nineteenth century). Moreover, it would be hard to understand why this kind of indoctrination is so much more successful than other such efforts in relatively free societies. The same point applies to arguments that people vote because they get "pleasure" from it. I highly doubt that many people enjoy the actual process of voting, which mainly consists of standing in line and then filling out a form. For that reason, I am skeptical about Jim's suggestion that the benefit voters get from casting a ballot is "like going to a movie or a football game." Movies and football games are entertaining and fun (at least to fans). Voting is not. Very few people regularly choose to stand in line or fill out forms as a leisure activity. The real "pleasure" that people get from voting (to the extent that they get any) is the sense that they have done their duty. But this in turn merely gets us back to the question of why they think they have such a duty in the first place. UPDATE: In response to this post, Orin Kerr writes:
The problem with Orin's argument is that, unlike the trip to Vegas, the decision to vote can easily be reversed, even at the last minute. There are no nonrefundable airline tickets, hotel reservations, etc. Therefore, even if it is true that, in thinking about a decision months ahead of time, people don't focus on the costs (which I'm skeptical about), they surely do realize the costs by the time election day comes around. Moreover, I highly doubt that most people even think about the decision whether or not to vote many months in advance. UPDATE #2: Frank Cross, one of the commenters to Orin's post writes:
On American Idol, people can vote simply by calling in on a toll-free line while watching the show. There is therefore virtually no cost to doing so; assuming you would be watching the show during that time period anyway, the only possible "cost" is the diversion of part of your attention way from the TV screen for 30 seconds or so. If you had to take an hour to go to a polling place to vote on AI, I think very few people would do so (even those who like the show). The fact that the producers have created a toll-free line for callers suggest that they realize that the voters are unwilling to pay even a very small cost to participate (a 1 minute long distance call probably costs no more than 10 or 15 cents). Voting for sports all-stars is a very different phenomenon from political voting. The people who fill out all star ballots generally have a strong interest in the sport in question and actually enjoy the process of thinking about which players should get in and which ones shouldn't. All-Star ballot voters are a small minority of the public, probably even of sports fans. Moreover, all star game voters can legally "stuff the ballot" by voting many times, which greatly increases the chance of affecting the outcome. Casting several hundred or even several thousand votes for your favorite player is a much stronger incentive to vote than being able to cast just one. Major League Baseball deliberately encourages ballot-stuffing because they know it increases "turnout" and interest in All Star game elections. A small minority of people are "political fans" and feel the same way about politics as sports fans do about sports. But the vast majority of people who vote do not in fact have this kind of strong interest in politics, and of course stuffing the ballot in a political election can land you in jail! Related Posts (on one page):
The Oregon State Bar Journal and Military Advertising:
The Oregon State Bar, which publishes a magazine for its members, generally refuses to accept advertising from employers who discriminate based on (among other things) sexual orientation. In early 2005, an Oregon lawyer objected to a National Guard attorney recruitment ad -- the Guard had "published ads from the Guard once or twice a year for the past five years at a cost of $30 each" (Oregonian, July 16, 2005) -- and the bar president "pulled the Guard's ad from its April issue and referred the issue to the group's board of governors." The board then voted not to exempt the Guard from the ban, but referred the matter to the bar's policy and governance committee. The committee voted 5-1 to recommend an exemption for the military; but in August, the board voted 11-3 not to create such an exemption. Some people who want to allow military advertising are now circulating a petition asking the Bar to submit the matter to a vote of all Oregon bar members. I'm not an Oregon bar member, but if I were, I would sign the petition, and I would vote to exempt the military, for much the same reason as I've given with regard to law schools' failing to exempt military recruiting from their no-sexual-orientation-discrimination rules: "Perspective," my New Shorter Oxford Dictionary says, is "a mental view of the relative importance" of things. The debate about whether law schools should exclude the military from interviewing on campus is ultimately not about gay rights. It's about perspective. I've put the PDF file containing the petition, ready to be signed and sent in, here, but here's the text: PETITION TO THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE OREGON STATE BAR Duke Power Oral Argument:
Last week, SCOTUSBlog posted two assessments of the oral argument in Environmental Defense v. Duke Power Corp., a case concerning when power plant modifications or repairs trigger federal "New Source Review" regulations that require new and modified stationary sources to adopt state-of-the-art pollution control equipment. Paul Guterman of Akin Gump observed that the argument "meandered" and, interestingly, that none of the Justices show[ed] much respect for the jurisdictional arguments raised by the Petitioners or, surprisingly, for the legal reasoning of either the 4th Circuit opinion by Judge Motz or the 7th Circuit opinion by Judge Posner.Guterman further noted that the justices repeatedly focused on the potential ambiguity of the EPA's regulations; "While seemingly mundane, the issue of whether the regulations are ambiguous has paramount importance for both the substantive and jurisdictional arguments." If the regulations are ambiguous, then it is more difficult to argue both that Duke Energy and other utilities clearly violated federal law when they modified their facilities and that lower courts err when they evaluate the EPA's interpretation of its regulations in the context of an enforcement action. Baker & Hoestetler's David Rivkin (who authored the amicus brief in which I participated) echoed some of Guterman's observations about the court's focus on the jurisdictional questions. After Wednesday’s oral argument in Environmental Defense v. Duke Energy Corp., it is clear that if the Supreme Court really accepted certiorari to defend the D.C. Circuit’s prerogative to decide the validity of agency action (a claim made by many an environmental pundit in the last several months), the Court spent an awful lot of time trying to figure out the answer to merit questions that the government and environmental groups allege it shouldn’t even be deciding. And, while it is uncertain which party will ultimately prevail in Duke Energy, it is clear that the case will not be the cakewalk for petitioners that many observers had predicted when the Supreme Court accepted the case for review over the government' and Duke Energy’s objections.Both Guterman and Rivkin seem to think the outcome is uncertain. Whatever the result, the decision could have significant economic, environmental, and legal implications. Several other NSR enforcement cases are still in the courts, and while the EPA has proposed to rewrite the relevant regulations, it is likely the agency will have to defend these changes in court as well. In closing, Rivkin offered this assessment: depending on how you view the issue, the government either can’t win or can’t lose. As has been well publicized, the government has pursued its NSR enforcement actions simultaneous with attempts to promulgate legislative rules that make the conduct in which the enforcement action defendants engaged legal. So if the government loses Duke Energy, it will very likely succeed in its attempts to reform the NSR program, and if the government prevails in Duke Energy, its attempts to reform the NSR program might be dealt a blow, but it will be in a better position in the enforcement actions. Campaign Infiltration in Ohio?
Ohio political blogs are buzzing about a series of posts (1, 2, 3) on the Buckeye State Blog suggesting an effort to infiltrate Republican get-out-the-vote efforts. (See also here.) This may well be a hoax or put-on designed to send right-leaning blogs into a tizz. (If so, it worked.) Nonetheless, if this were real, would infiltration of this sort be illegal? Bizzyblog notes the following Ohio Revised Code provisions. 3517.21Whether this provision would apply to the alleged (and as-yet unconfirmed) infiltration effort would seem to depend on whether a party-run get-out-the-vote effort would qualify as an "election campaign organization of a candidate" under the statute. Certainly the purpose of the statute is served by s uch a broad reading of the text, but I do not know whether this is the interpretive approach Ohio courts have used in similar contexts. In addition, the state would also have to demonstrate that any alleged infiltrators (or infiltration organizers) acted with the requisite intent: "knowingly and with intent to affect the outcome of such campaign." There is also the question of how actual infiltration efforts of this sort could actually be detected. Given the nuber of people involved in get-out-the-vote phone banks and door-to-door efforts, I would think it is very difficult to ensure that those whovolunteer for such efforts are sincere. So, whether or not this campaign is real, I would not be surprised if partisans on both sides of the aisle have sought to infiltrate opposing operations in the past, even if only to get a better handle on the opposition's tactics. But that does not make it proper or legit. UPDATE: I posted on this issue, as opposed to others (e.g. fake robocalls), because it's getting lots of attention on local blogs here in Ohio, and I thought it presented an interesting legal question. As for the fake robocalls, if they are as described they are a deplorable campaign tactic. The two things I am curious about (and have not yet seen) are a) the actual text of the calls, and b) why such calls would be illegal under current law. I welcome any comments that elucidate either of these points. FURTHER UPDATE: The folks at Buckeye State Blog and Plunderbund claim their efforts to solicit infiltrators was "a purely psyops operation" designed to see how the right-wing blogosphere would respond. Write the folks at BSB: "what we really infiltrated was their paranoid minds. In fact so successful was this infiltration that it actually affected the GOP's GOTV effort." Still More on Rational Voting - 2nd Reply to Jim Lindgren:
Jim Lindgren's most recent post is a rejoinder to my original reply. To recap, I argued that Jim's initial argument against my theory of rational voting doesn't refute it because Jim assumes that, for my theory to be correct, there must be a linear relationship between "the amount of money you are willing to give up to benefit others and the amount of benefit they receive from the sacrifice... That is, if you are willing to give up $1 so that your neighbor will get $1000, you are also willing to give up $1.5 billion in order to give your fellow Americans $1.5 trillion." To my mind, there is a big difference between the willingness to make relatively small, even trivial sacrifices and very large ones. The person who is willing to sacrifice $10 to give his fellow citizens an expected benefit of $15,000 (the tradeoff in the equation from my paper) won't necessarily be willing to sacrifice $1.5 million to give them $1.5 trillion. Jim replies:
Yes, the equation is purely linear. That is because I did not consider, in setting up the model, cases where the decisionmaker must decide whether to make a very large sacrifice rather than a small one. Quite likely, I was wrong to ignore that scenario, although I don't think that it is relevant to an analysis of the utility of voting (almost always an act that requires only small sacrifices). But building it into the equation would not significantly alter the result. For example, one could change the cost term in the equation (cost of voting) to include an additional variable that accounts for the fact that the tradeoff will change as C (the dollar cost of voting) becomes an increasingly high percentage of the potential voter's total wealth. Thus, the Total Cost (TC) of voting=C + (CxP), with P representing the percentage of the voter's wealth that $C is. For most people, however the cost of voting (which I assumed to be $10) will be a tiny percentage of their total wealth, and thus CxP will be utterly insignificant in real world terms (at least when dealing with voting). For example, if $10 is an unrealistically high 0.1% of the person's total wealth, then CxP will be $1. One could even posit a geometric rather than arithmetic increase in the value of CxP as C rises, since sacrificing 50% of your wealth may well pinch a lot more than fifty times as much as the suffering you feel from sacrificing %1.In technical economic terms, the marginal utility of income may go down as your wealth increases, but it may actually go up as your wealth decreases. Losing $100 is a small sacrifice for me, but perhaps a big one for a very poor person. An implication of this point is that very poor people will have lower turnout rates than others (because they are the only ones for whom CxP might be significant), and the evidence of numerous turnout studies does indeed bear this out. In sum, the unwillingness of people to make very large sacrifices to vote, in my view, says little about their willingness to make very small ones. However, Jim's analysis does highlight the need to deal with this point explicitly in future versions of the model (sadly, it is too late to incorporate in this particular publication, which will soon be going to press). Lastly, Jim, I think, continues to make the mistake of conflating dollar cost with utility, that I pointed out in my previous post. In the paper, I use hypothetical dollars as a convenient symbol for total utility, but I also emphasized that, in the real world, monetary cost is just one part of the total utility of voting. UPDATE: Here's a simpler way of making my point that occurred to me after I'd already written the body of this post: Many people routinely contribute small portions of their income to charity, say $100, in order to produce benefits for others. Let's say that a $100 donation produces 100 units of utility for those who benefit from the charity. Most of those who are willing to donate $100 to charity in order to produce 100 utiles would not be willing to donate $50,000 to produce 50,000 utiles. Yet this is not irrational; it simply represents the fact there is a nonlinear relationship between people's willingness to make small sacrifices for others and their willingness to make large ones. Many people are willing to be moderately generous, but very few are willing to be martyrs for a cause. The same point applies to voting. The person who is willing to sacrifice the equivalent of $10 in order to give his fellow citizens an expected value of $15,000 is not necessarily irrational if she is simultaneously unwilling to sacrifice $1.5 million in order to give them $1.5 trillion, or even to sacrifice $35,000 in order to do so (as in one of the examples Jim analyzes). Related Posts (on one page):
Rational Voting: Second Lindgren Post (Responding to Somin).--
I can see that Ilya Somin and I will probably go a couple more rounds in our discussion of rational voting. Nonetheless, I confess that I was surprised by Ilya’s response in a post below. Here is Ilya’s first point: But Ilya, surely you understand that it is YOUR EQUATION that is linear. If you run the numbers through your own equation, you get EXACTLY the results I reported. You assume that each and every voter on average would value a guarantee of his own preference for president at $5,000 for one person’s benefit and altruistically internalizes 1.5 billion dollars of the benefit of others. Dividing the $1.5 billion altruistic utility that your equation and example say that each voter on average acts on in choosing to vote by 100 million to generate a benefit of $15 does not make your equation any less linear, a fact that you surely know. If the relationship is not “purely linear” (or even remotely linear), then your equation is dead wrong because your equation is purely linear. Really, you can forget about whether the supposed $1.5 billion converts to income in a linear fashion, since my critique does not actually depend on whether you are now partially undercutting your earlier claim that the utility you posit has direct dollar equivalents. As my own speculative example hinted at, I doubt that most voters valuing a win for their preferred candidate at $5,000 (your assumed utility value) would altruistically value and internalize into their own decisionmaking the utility of victory for others at more than $5,000-50,000, certainly nothing even close to the $1.5 billion value for altruism you posit as being present on average. Remember, you need such a huge altruistic value for total utility or your hypothesized rationality doesn’t appear. Would someone rationally incur a $10 loss to gain a 0.005 cent to 0.05 cent gain in utility, as my more reasonable assumption of total utility would generate? Even if your model had assumed nonlinearity or nonequivalence in money (neither of which you actually assumed in your article), there still would be a massive gap between the 1.5 billion in total internalized utility that you assume on average and the $5,000 to $50,000 total internalized utility that I would assume on average. I guess I’ve persuaded you that your equation is wrong, because in your response you appear not to think that each and every voter on average values the winner at 1.5 billion dollars, which is the number that your equation and your hypothetical example yields. Related Posts (on one page):
Cute Law Review Article Title:
Sunday, November 5, 2006More on the Rationality of Voting - Reply to Jim Lindgren:
Co-blogger Jim Lindgren has a thoughtful response to my analysis of the rationality of voting. To briefly recap, I argue that voting is rational if 1) voters value the utility of their fellow citizens as well as their own, and 2) they perceive a big enough difference between the "right" candidate and his or her opponent. In reply, Jim makes the point that I may overestimate the extent to which people value the utility of others relative to their own. I assumed, in my analysis, that they value benefits to fellow citizens on average, 1/1000 as much as they value benefits to themselves. Jim argues, however, that:
I have two responses to Jim's point, one technical, the other intuitive. Let's take the intuitive point first: Jim's analysis assumes that the relationship between the amount of money you are willing to give up to benefit others and the amount of benefit they receive from the sacrifice is purely linear. That is, if you are willing to give up $1 so that your neighbor will get $1000, you are also willing to give up $1.5 billion in order to give your fellow Americans $1.5 trillion. To my mind, the second doesn't necessarily follow from the first. Jim has shown that my analysis becomes implausible in cases where the voter/citizen is called upon to make very large sacrifices. When we're talking about voting, we're generally talking about a very small sacrifice. Second, the technical point. Jim has (understandably) conflated the distinction between dollar income and utility. My analysis assumes that people value the utility of others at 1/1000 of their own, which is not the same thing as valuing the added dollar income of others at 1/1000 of the rate at which you value adding dollars to your income. When we're talking about making a sacrifice of $35,000 out of a $50,000 annual income (to use Jim's example), we're talking about a vastly greater loss of utility to the donor than when we're talking about sacrificing $10. And the difference between the two may well be much greater than $35,000/10. The $10 sacrifice is essentially trivial, while the $35,000 may wreck the donor's life for months or years to to come. The slightly altruistic donor/voter of my model might well reason that this massive sacrifice on his part outweighs the utility gain to the rest of the population from having the right candidate win, so long as he discounts the latter by a factor of 1000. It's worth noting, however, that there are in fact people who sacrifice the equivalent of 70% of one year's income to try to ensure that their preferred candidate will win an election. Many campaign volunteers do precisely that. I suspect that there would be more such people if they could be assured that their sacrifice would guarantee victory, rather than just increase the likelihood somewhat at the margin. In a large and diverse electorate, the 1/1000 figure is best viewed as a rough average rather than as a precise estimate of every individual voter's degree of altruism. In reality, some people are much less altruistic than this and others more so. Related Posts (on one page):
The Possible Rationality of Voting; Another View.--
My co-blogger and former (visiting) colleague Ilya Somin has an interesting article on the rationality of voter ignorance forthcoming in Critical Review, which he blogged about yesterday. On empirical matters, Ilya and I usually agree, often using some of the same data sources to make our points. But here, we seem to differ on a theoretical matter based on a difference in modeling assumptions. In his post, Ilya argues that, because of altruism, voting is rational in order to increase the probability that your preferred candidate will win. As I will explain below, I think that one can come up with a story consistent with rational voting, but probably not the story that Ilya tells. Ilya summarizes his argument in his post:
Of course, perhaps the other reason that Parfit’s theory has been largely ignored is that it is appears to be wrong. Ilya’s Equation In doing his modeling and making what he says are “plausible assumptions,” Ilya assumes that the odds of casting the deciding vote are 100 million to 1 and that people value their own utility 1000 times more than each other individual’s utility. The equation on the rationality of voting that Ilya refers to is this (Somin manuscript, page 4):
Ilya assumes that the cost of voting is $10, and the expected benefit per person of the preferred candidate winning is $5,000. If you plug in these numbers, the result is:
Accordingly, Ilya concludes that voting would be rational because the expected benefit of $15 is larger than the expected cost of $10, leaving a net expected benefit of $5 for voting. A Serious Problem With One Assumption One of the nice things about equations is that their assumptions are usually explicit. Look more closely at Ilya’s equation and what it says about voter preferences BEFORE the 1 in a 100 million discount is applied. Ilya's equation assumes that, if a voter could guarantee a victory for his preferred candidate, a typical voter would be willing to pay only $5,000 for one person's benefit (presumably his own), but that the same voter would be willing to pay about $1.5 billion dollars to benefit others ($5,000 x 300 million people / 1000). In other words, Ilya assumes that a rational voter when voting values the total utility of other Americans 300,000 times more than he values his own total non-altruistic utility ($1.5 billion to $5,000). Moreover, even leaving aside the comparative valuation, it can’t be that (because of altruism) the utility to each person voting of having one’s preferred candidate certain to win would be $1.5 billion dollars. To say that these are extraordinarily implausible assumptions is an understatement. I think, for example, that if most individuals were given a choice between half a billion dollars for one's own bank account and certain victory for one’s preferred presidential candidate, most individuals would be willing to switch allegiances and take the half billion dollars. Indeed, I suspect that a majority of individual voter’s allegiances could be purchased for a secret political consulting job paying much less than $200,000 per person (assuming certain victory for the candidate doing the hiring). So let’s make a much more rational assumption, but still one that is unrealistically generous to Ilya’s position. Let’s assume that a typical voter has a family gross income of $50,000 and a take-home pay of $35,000, and like Ilya, let’s assume that the voter would be willing to pay $5,000 just for one person's benefit (his own) to guarantee a win for his preferred presidential candidate. Now let’s be extraordinarily generous to Ilya’s position and assume that the typical voter is highly altruistic and would be willing to pay another $35,000 (an entire year of his family’s take-home pay) just to benefit others, not himself, by having his preferred candidate win. Plugging this into Ilya’s analysis, the expected benefit to each person of voting would be $40,000, divided by 100 million (the probability of casting the deciding vote), which is only 4 one-hundredths of a penny. Obviously, voting would be highly irrational, since the expected benefit to even a highly altruistic voter of just 0.04 cents is much less than Ilya’s assumed cost of $10 for voting. Thus, even for an extraordinarily altruistic voter, voting is highly irrational if its purpose is to influence the outcome of a presidential election. Related Posts (on one page):
Voting and the Wisdom of Crowds:
Several commenters on my post on the rationality of voting brought up James Surowiecki's interesting book, The Wisdom of Crowds. It so happens that I wrote a review of the Wisdom of Crowds last year, where I explained why his argument that large numbers of individually ignorant decision-makers can make seeemingly well-informed collective choices does not work well in the context of voting. For those interested, the review is available here. Right to Speak About Detainee Treatment?:
The Washington Post reports on an argument made in court recently by the Justice Department in detainee treatment cases:
The Bush administration has told a federal judge that terrorism suspects held in secret CIA prisons should not be allowed to reveal details of the "alternative interrogation methods" that their captors used to get them to talk.Marty Lederman has posted the brief here, and the affidavit here. As best I can tell, the context of the argument is that counsel for the petitioners, who are now at Gitmo but previously were detained in CIA secret prisons, proposed a regime for access to their clients that is modeled off of the regimes used in other Guantanamo cases. In this brief, DOJ argues that the court should not allow counsel to see the petitioners for two reasons. First, the court has no jurisdiction over these cases under the jurisdiction-stripping provisions of both the Detainee Treatment Act of 2005 and the Military Commissions Act of 2006, and, in any event, the court should resolve those jurisdictional issues first. Second, even if the court has jurisdiction, the procedures proposed by counsel are inadequate because the petitioners have top secret information about the CIA secret prisons. There needs to be special procedures put in place to make sure those secrets aren't leaked. I don't have much reaction to the first argument, but the government's brief on the second argument is notable for the paucity of citation to pertinent legal authority. The DOJ brief has the usual citations to general claims of the importance of the Executive Branch, but it seems to cite nothing with any direct relevance to the actual legal arguments the brief is attempting to make. Even more strangely, footnote 21 states that if the court wants to enter a protective order and allow access, it "should permit respondents a reasonable time to propose such a regime, confer with petitioners’ counsel regarding it, and present a proposal to the Court." I suppose this is better than simply arguing the jurisdictional point exclusively, but the reader can't help but wonder what kind of regime DOJ has in mind. If the facts of what happened to the petitioners are top secret, how does DOJ expect the attorneys to put on a defense? Crescat Sententia has moved:
It's now at www.crescatsententia.net, instead of at its previous home at dot org. Please visit it there! (The version currently up at dot org is a fake. Ignore it!) Compare to: "Homestarrunner dot net. It's dot com!" Related Posts (on one page):
Waiting for the Saddam Verdict.--
4 AM ET: The first defendant has now been brought into court into Iraq:
4:07 AM ET: One defendant found not guilty, several others convicted:
4:09 AM: Saddam found guilty and sentenced to death by hanging. Saddam starts yelling in response. Why it's (often) rational to vote:
The upcoming election raises the important question of whether it's rational for you to vote. You might think that the answer is obviously "yes." But economists and other rational choice theorists have long argued that voting is irrational. Why? Because there is only an infinitesmally small chance that your vote will make a difference. In a U.S. presidential election, the chance that one vote will decide the outcome is less than 1 in 100 million, and it is still extremely small even in elections for the House or Senate. Thus, the 30 or 40 minutes of time that it takes to vote is probably far more valuable than whatever benefit you hope to derive from the "right" candidate winning, if the latter is divided by the ludicrously tiny chance that your vote will be decisive. Critics of rational choice theory, of course, have had a field day arguing that rational explanations of human behavior are invalidated by the obvious fact that millions of people do vote, despite its being irrational to do so. The critics are, quite rightly, not swayed by arguments that voting is rational because people feel they have a "duty" to go to the polls. After all, why would it be rational believe you have a duty to do something that makes no difference? Duty-based explanations don't rescue rational choice theories of voting; they just add another layer of irrationality to the mix. In fact, however, both sides are wrong. It is indeed rational for many people to vote, and therefore the existence of widespread voting is not evidence against the validity of economics or rational choice theory. For a detailed explanation, complete with equations, see my forthcoming article here. The key insight is that the traditional rational choice theory of voting implicitly assumes that the voter cares only about their own self-interest, narrowly defined. But if you care even slightly about the potential benefits to fellow citizens of ensuring that the "right" candidate wins, then the sum total of those benefits might well outweigh the (generally low) costs of voting even after discounting for the fact that there is only a minute chance that your vote will make a difference. Real-world voters, of course, probably don't go through detailed calculations of the sort that I describe in the article. But they do likely realize that their is little chance that their vote will make a decisive difference, while also caring at least slightly about the welfare of their fellow citizens. And the combination of these two assumptions is enough, for many people, to make a rational decision to vote.Of course, under these assumptions, it will be rational to vote only if you perceive a significant difference between the two opposing candidates or parties. And, as I note in the paper, studies do indeed show that those who perceive a big difference between the two sides are far more likely to vote than those who don't. This theory is not entirely original to me; it was in fact proposed by philosopher Derek Parfit in his 1984 book Reasons and Persons (pp. 73-75); what I have done is explore its implications for voting theory more generally. Until now, Parfit's theory has been largely ignored by academic scholars of voting, perhaps because Parfit is not an economist or political scientist, and his book is primarily devoted to other subjects. Not all the implications of the Parfit model are reassuring. As I show in my article, despite the fact that it is rational to vote, it is also rational for most people to be poorly informed about politics (primarily because acquiring and processing political information is much more costly and time-consuming than voting). For the minority that is well-informed, it may well be rational to analyze the information they do have in a biased and illogical way. Thus, a rational population is likely to have a large number of people who choose to vote but also tend to be ignorant and/or illogical about politics. UPDATE: Some commenters argue that it's rational to vote because of the chance that, even if your vote isn't decisive, it can send a "message" about the degree of support for a particular candidate, policy, or party. But the same logic applies here. The chance that the "message" will be "received" is only infinitesmally greater if Candidate X gets 10 million votes than if he gets 9,999,999. The impact of any one vote on the probability of successfully sending a message is unlikely to be much greater than its impact on the probability of winning the election. Are the Democrats Likely to Take One Chamber or Two?--
I’ve been looking at which party is going to control the Senate after the election, and I’m a bit surprised at some of the juxtapositions. The Friday prices on the Iowa Electronic Markets show a 83.5% chance of Democrats gaining control of the House and a 33% chance of gaining control of the Senate (i.e., the Republicans having fewer than 50 Senate seats). The Saturday evening TradeSports line is similar: the Democrats have an 87-88% chance of taking the House and a 31.6-31.9% chance of taking the Senate. The House races are too numerous for me to make much sense of, but as I read RealClearPolitics, the Democrats need to pick up 6 seats to control the Senate, assuming that the probable 2 independents (Lieberman and Jeffords['s independent replacement Bernie Sanders]) caucus with them. Likely pickups are PA (Casey +11.2%) and OH (Brown +11.2%). Leaning Democratic is RI (Whitehouse +9.2%). The other three possible pickups are listed as tossups (MO, MT, and VA), but the Democrat is ahead in the RCP poll averages in each race by 0.6% to 1.7%. The Saturday night TradeSports bid/ask spreads also support Democratic victories in each individual race: MO: DEM: 50.3% - 55%; REPUB: 46.1-48%. MT: DEM: 65% - 68%; REPUB: 35-39.8%. VA: DEM: 55.2% - 58%; REPUB: 43.3-48.2%. So if each individual race breaks as currently polled, the Democrats win the Senate. There is an outside chance that the Democrats could pick up one of the other two Republican seats that RCP lists as leaning Republican (AZ, 8%, and TN, 6.5%), even if it lost one of the seats listed above. If each race individually goes according to the current polls and current betting line, the Democrats win both houses of Congress. But since so many races have to go toward the Democrats for them to win control of the Senate, both TradeSports and the Iowa Electronic Markets reflect about a 2 to 1 odds of the Republicans keeping the Senate. I find this an interesting example illustrating joint probabilities: combining even highly correlated multiple probabilities more than 50% yields a joint probability significantly less than 50%. Women and Role-Playing Games:
Sociologist E. Cabell Hankinson Gathman has an interesting article on women and role-playing games, trying to explain why so few women play RPGs. OK, the article may well be interesting primarily to those of us who spent a lot of time in high school playing Dungeons and Dragons. But I suspect that RPG veterans are, ahem, disproportionately represented among the learned VC readership. To me, another fascinating aspect of the article is the way in which the RPG culture is now primarily focused on online gaming, as opposed to the "real world" interaction that was the only game in town in the preinternet era when I played D&D. |