The electoral vote is certainly close, and turns on a close race in Ohio (though at this point it seems quite unlikely that Bush’s 130,000 vote lead will be overcome). But the 51-48 popular vote margin, while far from a blowout, is larger than the 1976 Carter-Ford margin, or the 1968 Nixon-Humphrey margin, plus of […]
Archive | November, 2004
Justice O’Connor Bobblehead for Sale:
My wife is selling an O’Connor bobblehead on Ebay. We will donate the proceeds from this one to Israel’s Red Magen David, the Israeli equivalent of the Red Cross. Its resources have been stressed by its role as the first responder to terrorist attacks (the organization runs Israel’s ambulance service). If you don’t want the […]
Clark County, Ohio moves toward the Republicans.–
According to the Guardian, in 2000 Clark County went 0.3% for Gore while Ohio went 3.9% for Bush, so it was 4.2% more Democratic than the rest of the state. In 2004 Clark County went for Bush by 2.4% over Kerry (compared to about 2.7% for Ohio in 2004). So Clark County moved 3.9% toward […]
Provisional Ballots in Ohio.–
At 4am ET early Wednesday morning, this official list of the number of Ohio provisional ballots by county does not have anything listed for Cuyahoga County. Assuming that there is no way to manufacture new provisional ballots in the next few hours, it appears that Americans were lucky this time that the results in Florida […]
Huh?
A Slate commentator writes a piece about whether Bush would run again in 2008 if defeated in 2004; and in the middle, he has this line: For Republicans, remember, Bush’s presidency began in a monarchical spirit — restoration of the House of Bush — and though Dubya’s conduct in office proved much more irresponsible than […]
Channel Surfing:
The Washington Post has set up this useful site that tracks in real time what states the different TV networks have called for Bush and Kerry.
When will we know?
Someone I was talking to at 4 pm Pacific today — a thoughtful and intelligent person who knows quite a bit about probabilities and predictions — predicted that by 9 pm Pacific the major networks would be calling a winner. (He said he believed this with 80% certainty; I set aside the mathematico-philosophical debates about […]
Exit polls:
This is a close race, and I’ll certainly agree that Bush may well lose it. But the pro-Kerry inference that some people are drawing from 50-49 exit polls strikes me as mighty odd. I suspect the mathematical margin of error on those polls is at least +/-3%. Add to that the margin of error that […]
Volokh Conspiracy brings out the Montana vote:
Well, I’m pleased to say that I’ve gotten three messages from Montana readers, one saying that he had already decided to vote for Brian Morris for the Montana Supreme Court, one saying that my post had persuaded him, and a third saying that my post had persuaded him and his mother! I am a vote-delivering […]
Tort Reform and the 2004 Election:
Those interested in tort reform issues should head on over to the Point of Law blog tonight, where Wally Olson and friends will be live-blogging state tort reform ballot initiatives.
No Terrorist Attacks?:
I’ve received lots of mail in response to my claim that there have been no terrorist attacks in the United States since 9/11/01. There have been attacks, many readers say. Most point to the mailing of anthrax letters in late 2001, and others point to the one-man attack at the El Al counter at the […]
A Panel on Blogging and the Election
featuring the likes of Daniel Drezner, Henry Farrell, and (to bring out the curious) Wonkette, will be held on Nov. 18 at Topaz in the DuPont Circle area of DC. Details here. I plan to be there; if you’re a VC reader and end up attending, be sure to say hello.
What if there’s an electoral college tie?
The election is then supposed to be decided by the House of Representatives, with each state delegation casting one vote — but the precise procedures for this are apparently not fully resolved. An article in The Hill discusses this, and also notes the uncertainty about how some Representatives whose party affiliation differs from the makeup […]
Have It Your Way:
This blog is a cooperative endeavor, with posts from many people, each of whom has his own perspective and his own style. I think it works very well this way; I much like the posts of all my cobloggers; and I’m pretty sure that we’d have many fewer readers if there were fewer cobloggers (since […]
Bernstein for President:
This morning, I was still unhappily contemplating whether to vote for Bush or Badnarik (the Libertarian) when my wife (who has Democratic tendencies), told me that she was so disgusted with the candidate selection that she was going to write in my name, and that I would make a better president than any of them […]