Author Archive | Dale Carpenter

9:10pm: George Allen is up by 2.06% with 73.8% of the votes counted. The main worry for the Allen camp is probably that Democratic stronghold Arlington County has been among the counties that have been slow in turning in results. 9:22pm: Well, most of the rest of Arlington county just came in. With 78.9% of […]

In Ohio and Missouri, unlike Virginia, there have been no last minute shifts toward the Republicans in late exit polls v. early exit polls. The mid-afternoon exit polls showed Democrats leading 50-48 in Missouri and 57-43 in Ohio. My recomputations from CNN’s page show the final exit polls (computed from the age and gender breakdowns) […]

On the CNN webpage, they break down the Webb-Allen race Exit Results by age and gender. With some simple algebra, one can compute the exit totals at 47.9% for Allen and 51.1% for Webb from the gender splits and 48.2% to 51.0% from the age splits. Remember that the mid-afternoon exit poll had Webb ahead […]

US News repeating FOX reports: Fifty-seven percent of late deciders, the Fox exit polls show, are breaking for the Democrats, and 39 percent for Republicans. This is a very important harbinger.

CNN just reported some more exit poll results that sounded very bad for Republicans. The Corner is passing on what they’ve heard are more specific Exit Poll Results. Remember, after the problems in 2002 and 2004, these should be taken with some skepticism. Democrats leading: Virginia (52-47) Rhode Island (53-46) Pennsylvania (57-42) Ohio (57-43) New […]

ABC’s take on the Exit Polls: Nov. 7, 2006 — Preliminary exit poll results indicate that nearly six in 10 voters today disapprove of the way President Bush is handling his job. About four in 10 approve. That’s down from 53 percent approval in 2004, and 67 percent just before the 2002 midterm elections. About […]

FOX is hinting at a big blowout of 30 seats or more moving to the Democrats in the House.

CNN: Hint, Hint: CNN said that the exit polls show strong evidence of “Broken Government.” One CNN reporter seemed giddy over the Democrats’ chances of taking the House. She reported that Nancy Pelosi and her staff are contemplating whether to move into new digs.

CNN just teased their blogger conference and focused the camera on Ann Althouse as they went to commercial.

As I interpret what CNN is saying, it appears that CNN is hinting that the exit polls just released to the networks favor the Democrats. Because the exit polls were so inaccurate the last time around, I think that people will rightly take them with more than a grain of salt. 5:25pm: Ken Mehlman (R) […]

There is a great description of exit polling at Pollster.com: A quick summary of how exit polls work: The exit pollster begins by drawing a random sample of precincts within a state, selected so that the odds of any precinct being selected are proportionate to the number that typically vote in that precinct. The National […]

Late Monday Night, Nov. 6 According to the betting at Iowa Electronic Markets, the Republicans have about a 70% chance of retaining the Senate. According to the betting at Tradesports, the Republicans have a 66-69% chance of retaining the Senate, which is down from a few days ago. Yet the Democrats are ahead in all […]

I can see that Ilya Somin and I will probably go a couple more rounds in our discussion of rational voting. Nonetheless, I confess that I was surprised by Ilya’s response in a post below. Here is Ilya’s first point: I assumed, in my analysis, that they value benefits to fellow citizens on average, 1/1000 […]

My co-blogger and former (visiting) colleague Ilya Somin has an interesting article on the rationality of voter ignorance forthcoming in Critical Review, which he blogged about yesterday. On empirical matters, Ilya and I usually agree, often using some of the same data sources to make our points. But here, we seem to differ on a […]

4 AM ET: The first defendant has now been brought into court into Iraq: Chief Judge Raouf Adbul-Rahman called for defendant Mohammed Azawi Ali to be brought into court first. He was a Baath Party official in Dujail and is one of the lesser-known defendants. The order in which the defendants were being called indicated […]