"Gun Sales Thriving in Uncertain Times,"

reports the Washington Post,

Several variables drive sales, but many dealers, buyers and experts attribute the increase in part to concerns about the economy and fears that if Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois wins the presidency, he will join with fellow Democrats in Congress to enact new gun controls.

The trouble is that, as the article says some twenty paragraphs down,

This year's jump is a continuation of a trend that began in 2006, about the time the housing bubble popped in parts of the nation, and remained steady last year as the political season began to take shape and the housing crisis grew.

Sure enough, FBI data shows the increase starting in 2006. If you compare each month to the same month in the preceding year, you see the spike beginning basically in late 2005 or January 2006, with the increase being higher in nearly every 2007 month than in nearly every 2008 month (all numbers are percentage differences between the same month in two neighboring years, with the last column representing the percentage differences between years):

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
2001, relative to 2000	0	-5	-1	-4	1	-2	-1	4	10	22	9	6	4
2002, relative to 2001	4	3	-2	6	5	-4	-1	-2	-16	-18	-10	-8	-5
2003, relative to 2002	-2	2	3	-1	0	2	0	-1	2	1	-5	3	0
2004, relative to 2003	6	2	0	3	-4	3	5	-2	0	1	6	7	2
2005, relative to 2004	-1	3	4	3	3	2	0	3	7	-2	4	8	3
2006, relative to 2005	13	10	10	6	12	11	12	21	16	14	13	8	12
2007, relative to 2006	15	11	15	20	28	29	20	10	3	6	3	-2	11
2008, relative to 2007	5	12	7	12	10	3	18	4	3

So it's hard to see how this supports the "concerns about the economy" story; there's always some concern about the economy, but I have no reason to think that it somehow dramatically increased in late 2005 or early 2006, and then decreased in 2008 compared to 2007. And I don't see how it supports the "fears of future gun controls" story, especially since you'd think that most of the buying along those lines will happen when the gun controls are actually proposed and working their way through the legislative process, rather than just when a pro-gun-control President might seem likely to be elected. So the Washington Post rationales seem to be supported by the quotes they use from the particular sources they rely on, but not by the hard data.

Thanks to Andrew Siddons of the Yomiuri Shimbun for the pointers.

Gun Sales Up:

Last year, I blogged about claims that gun sales were up due to concerns about the economy; I expressed skepticism, given that the rises and falls seemed to have little to do with economic trends. But more recent claims that gun sales rose following President Obama's election turn out to be accurate, at least judging by background check data. Here is the table I posted last October, updated to include October 2008 to February 2009; each cell indicates a percentage increase over sales during the same month of the preceding year, which would account for seasonal variations:

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
2001, relative to 2000	0	-5	-1	-4	1	-2	-1	4	10	22	9	6	4
2002, relative to 2001	4	3	-2	6	5	-4	-1	-2	-16	-18	-10	-8	-5
2003, relative to 2002	-2	2	3	-1	0	2	0	-1	2	1	-5	3	0
2004, relative to 2003	6	2	0	3	-4	3	5	-2	0	1	6	7	2
2005, relative to 2004	-1	3	4	3	3	2	0	3	7	-2	4	8	3
2006, relative to 2005	13	10	10	6	12	11	12	21	16	14	13	8	12
2007, relative to 2006	15	11	15	20	28	29	20	10	3	6	3	-2	11
2008, relative to 2007	5	12	7	12	10	3	18	4	3	15	42	24	14
2009, relative to 2008	29	23

So we see that there has been a big increase in Nov. 2008 to Feb. 2009 over the corresponding months the preceding years. The increase is far greater than what we've seen in past month ranges since 2001 — April to July 2007 was the only thing close to it, and it was substantially below what we've seen, especially in the month of the election.

This can't just be explained as seasonal variation. It can't be just explained by population growth. I know of no explanation stemming from new technological or marketing developments (e.g., some especially appealing new gun going on the market), though if some of you know it, I'd love to hear it. This does not seem to be just a brief blip. And the timing does seem to be more closely linked to the election than to the economic downturn more broadly.